The foundation of our investment process is the managers’ constant and thorough assessment of general macroeconomic and business conditions. The goal is to identify businesses and other investment media that will be most affected by large scale, external economic forces. The senior management team at Marketfield has a long public record of anticipating and responding appropriately, as macroeconomic conditions evolve from one cycle to the next. These large scale macroeconomic and market cycles normally persist for between five and ten years, with severe disruptions arising around transition points.
Variations in credit conditions and their impact on real estate and all forms of leveraged finance between 2003 and 2008 provide a recent example of the risks that arise during terminal phases. The restoration of normal capital market function following the collapse of liquidity in the fourth quarter of 2008 was a normal outcome of aggressive central bank easing and proved to be the critical pre-condition for the opportunities that subsequently arose. Recognizing these processes is paramount if a manager is to avoid the types of risk that can permanently impair a portfolio and remain able to capitalize on the opportunities that regularly follow periods of severe distress.
are structured with very broad charters in recognition of the widely
different asset and security types that can exhibit leadership from
one cycle to the next. Our style, while encompassing a wide array
of potential asset classes, will normally concentrate capital in
those specific assets that stand to derive the most benefit from
the macroeconomic forces that we anticipate. In any particular cycle,
we are likely to utilize only a small portion of the allowable range
of instruments. Short selling is included as an integral return-generating
approach with which all of our principals have had decades of experience.
are available for both domestic and non-U.S. investors, and separate
account management is available where warranted by client requirements
and portfolio size. All principals are available for direct consultation
regarding macroeconomic, business and investment issues about which
we have an adequate degree of professional understanding.