US commercial paper outstanding rose 26 bln (1.62%) last week to $1,640
bln. continuing the steady expansion seen since October's dramatic
contraction. The 52 week ROC (lower chart) remains firmly in negative
territory but at -11% is far healthier than the 22% drop registered in
October.


(See attached file: W-FCPOTOTS_Index.gif) - W-FCPOTOTS_Index.gif

It looks like we will be getting a reality check on European CRE values from
the disposal of the Lehman portfolio. This will have interesting implications
for the value of RE held on other companies balance sheets since it will be
hard for auditors to overlook sales of this magnitude.

Group performance in the SPX continues to diverge markedly. As the attached
table shows the SPX index overall is down 0.65% over the last month (October
24th - November 26th). The 5 best performing sub-sectors are up 5.13%
(Household Products) to 15.38% (Telecom Services) while the worst 5 sectors
have lost 8.71% (Real Estate) to -18.51% (Diversified Financials). It is
extremely unusual to see this sort of dispersal of returns in a "flat" overall
period.

While part of this story is clearly fundamental and driven by investors
"hiding" in pockets of relative safety (although Energy would not fit this
description) the out-performance has extended to the point that such momentum
players that still exist will be attracted to the fray. Of equal importance,
however, is the effect of this dispersal on group and individual stock
weightings. As a result "passive" index following managers are being forced to
radically overhaul rebalance their portfolios simply to keep them in line with
the index's composition. This is clearly to the advantage of the groups
currently showing significant out-performance. We are more used to witnessing
this process in the latter days of a long, narrow bull market but it seems to
us to be even more relevant in the chaotic aftermath of a market rout that has
affected different sectors to very different degrees. - sg2008112647466.gif

The October New Home data continued to demonstrate the established pattern of
moribund sales market combined with rapidly shrinking inventory. New sales
(blue line, left hand scale) came in at an annualized rate of 433K, very
close to the 441K consensus estimate. As the chart demonstrates we are now
recording a rate of activity similar to that seen at the depth of other
bear markets in 1991 (401K), 1982 (374K), 1970 (373K) and 1966 (358K) with
a national population significantly higher than in earlier periods. As such
while activity may continue to decline it is highly unlikely to fall more
than 10-15% from current levels, and this would only represent 3,000 -
4,000 incremental monthly sales during the trough period.

We are, however, more interested in the inventory data (black line) which
continues to register a record decline in this metric. October's inventory
fell by 33K homes, well over twice the prior record fall over a 1 month
period. Put another way this rate of decline would result in a removal of
the entire inventory over the next 13 months. Over the last 12 month
inventory has now fallen by a total of 132K or 25.7%, again a record for
any prior 12 month period. As ridiculous as it may seem we may be looking
at a relative scarcity of new housing inventory by the second half of 2009.


(See attached file: M-NHSLNFS.gif) - M-NHSLNFS.gif

We have been watching gold quite closely recently (together with gold
mining equities) but it is also worth paying attention to silver, its
junior and more volatile cousin. Silver suffered a far worse decline from
March to October losing just over 60% of its peak value ($21.35) at its
October 28th low ($8.45). Since that time the metal has been range bound
roughly between $9.00 and $10.50, with resistance being formed by the
falling 50 day ma (currently $10.62). This activity has had the effect of
repairing a good deal of the extreme oversold condition that was in place
in October with MACD slowly snaking its way back towards neutral territory.
A break and close above the 50 day ma would offer some hope that the metal
can force its way higher with the October high of $12.31 being a potential
target.


(See attached file: D-SILV_Comdty.gif) - D-SILV_Comdty.gif

Our initial thoughts on today's Treasury announcement is that this is a
very important piece of policy. The direct purchase of GSE MBS was
something we suggested should take place last July when the first wave of
dislocation took place in the GSE marketplace. Our thought was that if the
implicit guarantee of MBS paper is clearly going to be ultimately respected
why not issue Treasuries and "capture" the excess spread for the benefit of
the taxpayer? Of course events have moved on radically from this simpler
period but today's announcement still makes sense, and was certainly
necessary given the massive spread that agency paper has been traded at.

The response of the market has been swift (and therefore needs to be
watched before it can be totally trusted) with 5 year FNM spreads (lower
chart) dropping 36 bp to 100 bp and 5 year swaps (upper chart) falling
back to 80.8 bp. Big winners in this are the holders of GSE paper and this
policy can be seen in conjunction with this weekends C bailout as
continuing the process of erecting a stable safety net for at least the
bond-holders depositors and customers of financial corporations. While
longer dated Treasuries have rallied thus far we suspect that they will
ultimately be the losers, with last week's record low yield for the 30 year
bond of 3.42% going down as one of the most extreme prices recorded during
this entire crisis.



(See attached file: D-USSP5.gif) - D-USSP5.gif

See earlier e-mail for text...

(See attached file: W-GOLDS_Comdty.gif) - W-GOLDS_Comdty.gif

Gold has fulfilled the target we set in last week's Speculator in order for
us to categorize it in the (almost entirely de-populated) "Buy List". As
the attached long term Log chart shows spot gold (black line) remains
comfortably within its long term rising trend and Friday's close took the
metal above a ratio of 1 with the SPX (lower chart) for the first time
since 1991 (this measure peaked at 7.30 in 1980). However, while the metal
is currently attractive we find ourselves drawn more to the equities of the
mining companies. The XAU (Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index) was punished
heavily in the September/October decline and is currently trading at its
mid 2005 level when gold was in the mid-$400's. No doubt further volatility
lies ahead but this small sector potentially has the ability to shrug off
the difficulties currently faced by the broad equity market.



(See attached file: W-GOLDS_Comdty.gif) - W-GOLDS_Comdty.gif

Friday's H.8 data (which covers the period through November 12th) saw
another large increase in the Commercial Banks' Cash assets, rising $63 bln
(8.10%) to $848.60. Treasury holdings rose a modest $9 bln (0.66%) but
taken together the percent of Cash and T-notes rose from 20.84% to 21.47%.
We are therefore still on track to enter the "safety zone" indicated in
pink by the holiday period.




(See attached file: D-.BANKCASH_Index.gif) - D-.BANKCASH_Index.gif

An interesting article that shows how far the whole Bio-fuel/Food/Fertilizer
complex has fallen from its July highs. A supposedly Malthusian shortage of
crops has turned into a historic glut in less than 6 months. Note the comments
on fertilizer prices towards the end of this article which suggest that it will
be hard to return prices anywhere close to their 2008 highs.

We have got used to seeing remarkable charts over the last 18 months but
few have rivalled this week's update of the Morgan Stanley CMBS Spreads.
The CMBS market has simply evaporated with A Grade tranches now apparently
"trading" at 6026 bp, AAA Junior at 2626 bp and AAA Super Senior at 1426
bp. The abrupt collapse in REIT equities makes even more sense in light of
this data since there effectively is not credit available for CRE at any
price.


(See attached file: W-CMBSA_Index.gif) - W-CMBSA_Index.gif

Following the recent collapse in Financial Equities the weighting in this group
has fallen to a total of 11% of SPX market weight, of which just over 3%
represents the banks. Put another way if the equity value of the entire
financial sector was to fall to zero the direct "cost" to the SPX would now
only be around 80 points, while if the Bank constituents alone were to
evaporate the cost would be around 22 points. It is important to realize that
as this group shrinks in size its direct influence on the market is also
diminished. Clearly "Collateral Damage" is another matter entirely. -
sg2008112150288.gif

Dubai Defies Slump as Minogue Joins $20 Million Party (Update1) ...

We have been cataloguing tales of excess for several months and no part of the
globe has institutionalized this as a "national culture" more clearly than
Dubai. Attached is a story to file away and re-read to the next generation of
how and why it all went wrong.
<>

As this week's update of the CS High Yield Index shows after 3 weeks of
relative calm there has been a significant further deterioration in the
High Yield market in recent days. The Nominal Yield of this index has now
breached the 20% level for the first time in history (20.28%) while the
spread to 5 Year T-Note is now a remarkable 18.26%. It is interesting to
note that the Investment Grade credit market has shown nothing like the
same degree of stress in recent days, suggesting that there is an
increasing distinction being drawn between the quality of asset being
traded. In the case of High Yield there is clearly no effective demand at
any price at the current time and a further widening of spreads is quite
possible while this state of affairs persists.


(See attached file: W-.JUNK_Index.gif) - W-.JUNK_Index.gif

As we run through divergences between this particular sell off and the
prior dislocations of 2008 we note that investment grade credit has
performed significantly better in recent days than during the
September/October rout. The Moodys BAA bond index has seen its yield
stabilize above the 9% level and has actually fallen back from a peak at
9.38% last Thursday to 9.11% last night. Due to the massive rally in longer
dated Treasuries the spread has continued to widen substantially breaking
through the 6.00% this morning (the highest since our data starts in the
1960's). However, this does not appear to reflect an aversion to holding
corporate paper at the current elevated yields but instead a massive rush
into Treasuries from other asset classes (presumably CMBS and High Yield
given their recent awful performance).

The lack of renewed liquidation of investment grade credit is an important
development (provided it remains intact) and does suggest an element of
"risk migration" is taking place, at least in certain higher quality asset
markets.


(See attached file: W-MOODCBAA_Index.gif) - W-MOODCBAA_Index.gif

The SPX has just got within touching distance of its 2002 low (768.83) and
has bounced off this key support. The VXO has confirmed the validity of this
move by moving above the ky 85 level. Both levels clearly need to be
watched carefully on an intra-day basis. We have used 750 as our "worst
case scenario" since mid -September (based on the presumption that this
sell off would mimic the 1974 crisis) below this level there is no credible
support for another 10%. The next downside target would be a 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement of the entire 1982-2007 bull market which comes in at 684.



(See attached file: D-SPX_INDEX.gif) - D-SPX_INDEX.gif

As a range of large cap financial stocks cascade to fresh 2008 lows we are
struck by the difference in the behavior of certain financial spreads at the
current time when compared to the panics that led up to BSC's demise in
March and the multi corporation train wreck in September. Crucially swap
spreads have actually been plummeting in recent days with 5 year swaps (top
chart) now down to 84.8 bp, 10 year swaps at 11.9 bp (a record low) and 30
year swaps a truly bizarre -45.5 bp. This suggests that whatever may be
going on in investors minds we are not currently witnessing the demise of a
major financial player, just a wholesale light from risk assets regardless
of price or coupon.

Agency spreads certainly confirm the latter with 5 year spreads now
climbing to a massive 162 bp (84% of the entire yield on the 5 year T-Note)
while corporate spreads continue to dislocate out to record levels. We are
well aware of the medium term concerns driving these developments but it is
important to realize that the likelihood of an abrupt failure of a large
financial US institution seems more remote today than at the height of
previous panics.


(See attached file: D-USSP5.gif) - D-USSP5.gif

Back in July we highlighted the radical change in relative performance of
the AMEX Oil Index (XOI) and KBW Bank Index (BKX). It is easy to forget
but the massive breakdown in energy stocks relative to financial stocks
(caused initially by a very sharp bounce by the latter) marked the start of
the brutal "deleveraging" cycle that remains very much with us today.
Interestingly this ratio continued to compress right through the summer
decline in the SPX and culminated in an aggressive liquidation of energy
related stocks in mid October at precisely the time the SPX bottomed at
839.

Since that time although the SPX has remained essentially range-bound
(albeit in the most violent way possible) there has been a very notable
reversal in the performance of these 2 groups. Energy shares remain some
distance above their October lows while the BXX index has completely broken
down in recent days. As a result the ratio has soared back as high as 20.8
up from a low below 14 on October 15th. Interestingly there is little
suggestion that this rebound has been caused by a renewed allocation
towards oil stocks but this divergence in group performance is a very
significant difference between the current performance of the SPX and that
of 1 month ago when it was at a very similar level.



(See attached file: W-.XOI_BKX_Index.gif) - W-.XOI_BKX_Index.gif

Westin, Promenade Commercial Mortgages Near Default (Update1) Nov. ...

We have followed the collapse of the CMBS market for several months. During the
early part of this story widening spreads were greeted by claims that the
market was mis-pricing risk but it has become increasingly clear that this was
not the case. The first large CMBS defaults are now starting to occur and
according to this article AAA CMBS spreads just crossed the 1000 bp level
today, a remarkable landmark even in these jaundiced days.
<>

October's US Homebuilder confidence index came in at 9, a record low figure
that pretty much reflects an accross the board pessimism about the state of the
industry (remember this is a diffusion index with a 0-100 range where 50
represents "normal" conditions). Present sales (8) and Traffic (7) actually
managed to exceed this dismal figure while Future Sales remained steady at
19.
Given the turmoil surrounding debt markets and the current unwillingness
of consumers to consider even moderate discretionary purchases this awful data
is unsurprising but it comes at a time that the structure of this market
(particularly in regards to the inventory and activity levels) is much more
suggestive of a bottom than the mid-point of a decline. The trouble is that any
hope of a recovery has now been deferred by at least 60-90 days and for the
weaker members of this community time is an asset in short supply. -
sg2008111847025.gif

We continue to track the effects of the FRB's massive inflation of its
balance sheet and the attached chart shows the dramatic change in the
higher grades of commercial paper in recent weeks. At their peak in
mid-October Tier 1 commercial paper was yielding over 4.5% (300 bp above
the FDTR) while Tier 2 peaked at 6.25%. Yields for Tier 1 paper have now
collapsed to around 1.50% (50 bp above the FDTR) largely as a result of the
FRB directly purchasing a large quantity of this paper. Tier 2 paper on the
other hand remains stuck around the 4.50-5.00% range (350-400 bp above the
FDTR). This is approximately 300 bp above where it would trade in a
"healthy" environment.

This clearly demonstrates both the success and the limits of the FRB's actions
- pretty much the only markets to respond have been those directly targeted
with barely any "trickle down" effect into lower grade paper or other
associated credit markets (such as investment grade corporates). On the other
hand we would point out that it is still very early days in this process and
the removal of an effective yield from both bank deposits and the highest grade
of CP seems likely to encourage an element of "risk migration" in the coming
weeks. It is also important to realize that the nominal yield for Tier 2 CP
is no higher than it was in January 2008 and remains affordable for most
issuers assuming that new deals can be brought to market.


(See attached file: D-H15S030D.gif) - D-H15S030D.gif

Friday's weekly H.8 report continues to demonstrate the very rapid build-up
of cash and treasuries on commercial bank balance sheets. The attached
chart shows the percentage of the bank's assets made up of cash and
treasury holdings going back to 1985. Friday's report took this indicator
back above the 20% level for the first time since January 2006 and also
above the low point recorded in the 1993-2000 expansionary cycle (blue
line). Our suggested target for this measure is a band centered on the 24%
level (the approximate peak of cash and treasury holdings in the 2000-2002
down-cycle) although this represents little more than guesswork on our
part. Indeed the repair of the S&L crisis at the start of the 1990's saw
banks end up with just over 31% of their holdings in cash and Treasuries in
1993. While a target of 24% may plausibly be reached by the end of 2008 it
would take several months even at the current record rate of accumulation
to build cash and treasury holdings back to the 1993 level.

As welcome as this radical repair of balance sheets may be (and its speed
certainly demonstrates desperation on the banks part) this is very much
only addressing the problem of the commercial banks' stability. It is not
as yet encouraging them to re-enter the commercial or personal loan market
in anything like the manner required to enable "business as usual" and this
seems likely to be a substantial bone of contention in the weeks ahead.
Nevertheless relative stability is a sizeable improvement over chaos and it
is wrong to dismiss the recent developments as either irrelevant or doomed
to failure.

(See attached file: D-.BANKCASH_Index.gif) - D-.BANKCASH_Index.gif

The attached chart shows the trading of the 10 week ma of the VXO (with raw
price suppressed) since its inception in 1986. As the chart demonstrates we are
now in the most prolonged period of ultra-high implied volatility that we have
seen over this period with the 10 week ma now comfortably exceeding the levels
reached around the 1987 crash. Given that 1987 included the record 172 reading
for the VXO this is no mean accomplishment. Nevertheless there are some signs
that implied volatility may be waning. Yesterday's break of key support was not
confirmed by the VXO breaking out above 85 and the index peaked at 73.87.

This is still no doubt a reading consistent with utter panic but it was considerably
lower than the reading of 103.41 recorded on October 10th. As we have commented
before buying premium at 60+ in a largely range bound market is a tricky
business - the nimble and disciplined can make good profits but timing is
everything at these lofty levels. - sg2008111435366.gif

The FRB continues to expand its balance sheet in an explosive manner with this
week's report seeing a $142 bln (6.92%) increase to $2.198 Trln. an increase of
$1.3 Trln. from mid September's level. The attached chart shows the FRB balance
sheet (white) together with that of the US commercial banks (orange), the
yellow line on the bottom chart shows the ratio of the 2 (expressed as a
percentage). As the chart demonstrates the FRB has gone from a balance sheet
that was a mere 9% the size of the commercial banks to one that is now a
bloated 22%.

This afternoon's publication of the commercial banks balance
sheets should give some insight as to where the latest injection of money has
been directed (we expect to see cash and Treasury holdings by banks expand
significantly) but in the meantime we note that both reserve balances and the
Term Facilities (TAF and TSLF) have both grown rapidly in the last 2 weeks. -
sg2008111423249.gif

Hirst Flops at `Brutal' New York Art Sale; Tally Misses Target Nov ...

Despite the hopeful comments made earlier in the acution season (which we
pointed out at the time mirrored RE brokers claims 12 months ago) it is clear
that the market for art now suffers from extreme dislocation.

In a world in which non-distressed investment grade credit can yeild high single digits it
seems foolish to imagine that the over-produced and over-hyped modern art
market has come close to a bottom.
<>

Wine Auction Prices Slump Like Stocks as Bidders Sit on Hands Nov. ...

We have followed the collapse of the art market in recent weeks and as the
attached article shows this weakness has now spread throughtout the portion of
high end of "luxury" discretionary spending that for a short period masqueraded
as "alternative investing".

There is an old English joke that "you only rent beer" and the same appears to be
true of fine wine prices at the current time.
<>

Jobless claims come within 1,000 of the number recorded in the aftermath of
9/11 attacks. Ignoring that week this represents the highest reading since July
1992. - sg2008111348656.gif

There are finally some signs of life in the high end of the secondary market
for investment grade bonds. It is very important that purchasers of the few
recent high quality issues that have been brought to market are able to show a
profit on their investments if the bond window is to open more than its present
crack.

Russian reserves continue to shrink at an alarming rate. We would expect this
to be replicated in other emerging markets over the coming weeks although not
to the same degree.

As ugly as the last 5 sessions have been (ie very) it is interesting to note
that the weakness is of a much more dispersed nature than the decline in mid
October. While every Tier 2 group in the SPX has declined the spread between
the strongest and weakest groups is significant and indicates that the current
sell off (thus far) has not been nearly as indiscriminate. This is clearly
important since it raises the possibility that even if the overall SPX index
breaches key support at 839 (now fairly likely) a number of important groups
may not revisit their October lows.

Not suprisingly these "leading" groups are
clustered around relatively defensive portions of the market together with
Transportation which has benefited from lower energy prices. -
sg200811138033.gif

Interesting summary of the real "industrial" world implications of the current
crunch and FRB activity.

As we have noted before it makes sense to pay attention to some of the extreme
moves in some of the more "peripheral" markets (Frontier being a dirty word
nowadays). Kuwait will probably not be the only bourse to follow this path.

In tracking the dislocation in commercial credit we have largely concentrated
on the HY arena in recent weeks but it should be recognized the the investment
grade arena has also suffered an indiscrimanate sell-off in recent weeks.
Attached is a chart showing the Moodys BAA index (which tracks the lowest grade
portion of the IG arena) as a spread to 10 year T-Note yields. The current
spread of approximately 5.5% is the widest recorded since the 1930's, while the
nominal yield over over 9% seemingly amply rewards those willing to take the
risk of exposing themselves to this area. - sg2008110961375.gif

As the FRB continues to radically inflate its balance sheet (now up to over $2
Trillion from $900 bln. in September) we are beginning to see these funds
appear in some of the other data we track. Attached is a chart that shows the
total percentage of Cash and US Treasuries that make up US commercial Banks;
Balance Sheets. As the chart demonstrates US banks balance sheet did not merely
balloon in size in recent years, their make up changed markedly with a large
reduction in the proportion of "risk free" assets. While prior booms ended with
the "risk free" percentage falling to around 24% (1989) and 20% (2000) by 2008
this figure had dropped as low as 14%. Since mid-September this has shot back
up to 19.5%, still historically low but a very rapid rate of change. We would
look for this metric to return to at least the level reached in 2002 (24%) at
the end of the last recessionary crisis. - sg2008110960900.gif

We have been following the deterioration of the CMBS market for several months
and are frankly unsurprised to see it reach the current state. We made the
point at the time of LEH's demise that a vital provider of mezzanine finance
had been removed from the equation and that the situation was likely to
deteriorate rapidly. We have now reached the point where even well established,
seasoned properties are becoming hard to finance and we would expect to see the
distressed cycle move on to a far higher rate of foreclosure in the weeks ahead.

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Commercial-Mortgage Lending Comes to `Abrupt Halt,' RBS Says
2008-11-07 15:18:14.630 GMT


By Sarah Mulholland
Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Commercial real estate borrowers are
running out of options as asset-backed markets dry up and
alternative financing comes to an ``abrupt halt,'' RBS Greenwich
Capital Markets Inc. analysts said.
Regional banks and insurance companies, which had become
the primary source of financing since credit markets seized up,
have stopped lending, the RBS analysts wrote in a report. Sales
of bonds backed by commercial mortgages slumped to $12.2 billion
in 2008, compared with a record $237 billion last year,
according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
The government's attempts to unlock credit markets is
easing some borrowing costs in some markets, though won't
relieve the seizure in the commercial mortgage debt market,
Pendergast said. The Federal Reserve took unprecedented action
to revive short-term lending, setting up a facility to buy 90-
day commercial paper from companies and a program to purchase
asset-backed commercial paper from money-market mutual funds.
``The de-thawing of the shorter-term lending markets is a
welcomed first step,'' according to RBS analysts led by Lisa
Pendergast in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``However, it is a baby
step and will have little effect on commercial real estate
lending near term.''
Both regional banks and insurers are reigning in lending,
Pendergast said. The insurance industry is under review by
ratings companies and may be downgraded, while not yet receiving
permission to participate in the Treasury's capital injection
programs, she said. Regional banks remain ``under significant
pressure,'' Pendergast said.
``Like life insurance companies, indications are that many
of these banks have closed their books for the year and 2009
remains a big question mark,'' Pendergast said.

Loans Coming Due

The dearth of financing options will make it challenging
for borrowers with loans coming due in 2009. About $88 billion
in commercial real estate loans will mature next year, RBS
estimates. Between 2009 and 2011, $123 billion in loans that
have been packaged into bonds will mature, which doesn't include
direct loans originated by banks or insurance companies, the
analysts said.
Top-rated commercial mortgage-backed securities are trading
at a record 633 basis points more than the benchmark swap rate,
according to Bank of America Corp. data, compared with 318.8
basis points on Sept. 15, the day Lehman Brother Holdings Inc.
filed for bankruptcy. The bonds were trading at about 70 basis
points more than the benchmark a year ago, the data show.
Spreads on commercial mortgage-backed securities probably
won't narrow enough to make it economical for investment banks
to originate new loans until late 2009 at the earliest, and more
likely not until 2010, the analysts said.
Delinquencies on commercial real estate debt rose to 0.78
in October compared with 0.66 percent in September, RBS
Greenwich data show.

For Related News:
For more on commercial mortgage-backed securities:NI CMBS <GO>
For top bond news: TOP BON <GO>

--Editors: Emma Moody, Romaine Bostick

To contact the reporter on this story:
Sarah Mulholland in New York at +1-212-617-2966 or
[email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Emma Moody at +1-212-617-3504 or
[email protected]

Today's CS HY index reading keeps the basket of HY bonds yielding 17.61% a drop
of 6 bp from last week's number. The attached chart shows the index together
with a 4 and 10 week ROC (actual basis points NOT percentage). As the chart
demonstrates after exploding higher in mid-September the index has now remained
between 17-18% for the last 4 weeks with the short term ROC falling markedly.
As we have pointed out before yields at this level are inherently unstable;
either the liquidation crisis will continue in which case yields will force
their way much higher or a measure of stability will emerge which takes yields
back down to level several percentage points lower (which would still represent
an extra-ordinary spread to Treasury yields). The balance of probablities now
favors the latter, notwithstanding the asful economic and corporate data that
has been announced in recent days. - sg2008110735361.gif

Yesterday's very strong market performance has had the effect of finally
breaking the VXO decisively out of its 55-85 trading range and at the close the
index sat just below its 50 day ma. As a result a substantial amount of put
premium value has eroded in the last 48 hours and we would expect the market to
receive support from the unwinding of such positions in the coming days.
Looking ahead the next key target is the 40 level, the traditional demarcation
point between a "critical" and "healthy" market, while the 55 level should now
act as strong resisitance. - sg20081105617.gif

Art Market `Corrects' as Lots Go Unsold at Sotheby's (Update1) Nov ...

We continue to follow the unwinding of the art market, which judging from the
still semi-optimistic tone of the quotes still has far further to fall. The
"world may still need art" but we might make do with something a little more
prosaic and underpriced than the pieces being pedalled at Sotheby's latest
failure.
<>

`Wow Factor' Buildings Endangered by Crisis, Says Chipperfield Nov ...

One of our recurring themes is that consumption trends are not just cyclical in
terms of quantity but there is also a quantative aspect to this process. In no
area has this been more obvious than in the world of architecture over the last
5 years. As the attached interview suggests it is not only that far less
developments are going to take place globally due to the collapse in credit
availability and RE values the "urge to splurge" is going to become culturally
curtailed as well.
<>