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SPX Index Daily ROC
30 Year Bond yields
Treasury Statement on Conversion of Citigroup Shares
New Home Sales vs. Existing Home Sales
New Home Sales Data
(BN) Oil Fund Investors May Be Helping Suppress Prices,
(BN) Trichet Says Falling Credit Supply May Undermine
SPX Returns and Weightings November 20 - February 20
PPI/CPI Ratio
FRB Balance Sheet H.4.1 Analysis
January PPI Data
(BN) China Feasts on Miners as 'Bank of Last
(BN) Manhattan’s Riverton Apartments Set for Auction Block
Fiscal Stimulus Is a Ruse Absent Fed Pixie Dust:
NAR US Homebuyer Affordability Index
Chinese Monetary Growth
FRB Balance Sheet Changes
U.S. Mortgage Market’s $3 Trillion Problem: Chart of the Day
30 year FNM spread
(BMP) Moody's Comments: Dimensioning US Government Debt
(BMP) Moody's announces review of Certain U.S. CMBS Ratings
Silver
(BN) FDIC Bid to Expand Borrowing Gains; Panel Raises
(BN) Emerging Markets Recommended by Oscar Gruss After 18-
Baltic Freight and China "A" shares (SHSZ300 Index)
(BN) ECB Extends Currency Swap Lines With Fed Until End
DJ Transportation Index (TRAN index )
(BN) ‘One of the Great Repair Jobs’ Revives U.S. Banks: Chart of

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# Friday, 27 February 2009
Friday, February 27, 2009 12:13:17 PM

From our perspective today marks the 2 year anniversary of the current
crisis. While there are many possible later dates to begin this history
(the announcement of the BSC mortgage funds in June, The lowering of the
Discount rate in August, the peak of the equity market in October) February
27th 2007 for us marked a turning point after which things were never quite
the same again. Against a backdrop of defaults by a small number of
sub-prime mortgage companies (New Century being the most prominent) the SPX
index fell by over 2% in a single session for the first time since May
2003. Faced with daily gyrations commonly in excess of twice this figure it
is easy to forget the extremely low level of both historical and implied
volatility that prevailed from 2003-7, and of course one of the more
influential factors behind the current period of turbulence has been the
unwinding of short volatility strategies that proliferated in the low
volatility environment.

If there is a positive message to be drawn it is that we are perhaps
somewhat further into this period of crisis than many participants realize,
and that in time every excess does revert to its mean. The current daily
rate of change is far beyond any normal reading and while we doubt that we
will see the VXO trade below 10 again in a "trader's lifetime" the current
very difficult conditions will eventually produce their own reward.



(See attached file: D-SPX_Index.gif) - D-SPX_Index.gif

| | # 
Friday, February 27, 2009 10:19:43 AM

After backing up rapidly earlier this month long term Treasury yields have
been consolidating below key resistance of 3.00% for 10 year note and 3.80%
for the 30 year bond. today's response to very weak GDP revision and news
of the "Return of Citigroup Bailout" is quite telling in our opinion. The
inability for Treasuries to rally is a clear warning that a new impulse
higher may be developing, with the 200 day ma (3.41% for 10 year & 3.97%
for 30 year) being reasonable short term targets.



(See attached file: D-USGG10.gif)

(See attached file: D-USGG30_Index.gif) - D-USGG10.gif - D-USGG30_Index.gif

| | # 
Friday, February 27, 2009 8:18:15 AM

Treasury Statement on Conversion of Citigroup Shares (Text) Feb. ...


As we have commented before, buying the equity and hybrid instruments of the
large US banks has long since ceased to be investing as traditionally
understood and can far more accurately be described as "regulatory roulette".
Today's expected Citigroup bail out provides another twist in the tail. The
Treasury is willing to convert up to $25 bln. of its preferred stake into
straight equity provided this is matched by private preferred holders doing so
on a parri-passu basis. Quite what will be achieved out of this other than
spreading panic througought the hybrid marketplace is not clear. We had hoped
that the lessons of the GSE, LEH and WM debacles had been better learned than
appears to be the case.
<>


 

| | # 
# Thursday, 26 February 2009
Thursday, February 26, 2009 2:58:08 PM

One of the more puzzling things about the current housing market is how
much better existing home sales have held up than the new home market.
While the latter has retreated to record low activity (black line, right
hand scale in thousandss) the existing home sales (red line, left hand scale in
millions) have dropped by around one third from their record 2006/7 activity
but remain at a level consistent with a very healthy housing market in the mid
1990's. This is obviously not enough activity to stabilize this deeply troubled
market but it does not demonstrate the sort of credit restriction that the
headlines (and Congressional harangues) would lead you to believe is taking
place.

Looking at the ratio of new vs. existing home sales has plunged to an all
time low of 7.63% (see green line on lower chart). We are frankly
challenged to come up with a simple reason as to why this relationship has
diverged so radically from its norm (note the chart covers several brutal
housing recessions and this sort of a breakdown has never happened before).
Clearly foreclosure sales must be boosting existing homes and it may be that
the rush to higher end developments that took place at the end of the housing
boom has left the home-builders with a product that is out of synch with the
current market. Nevertheless we are firm believers that long term relationships
such as this eventually return to their historic norms so maybe we should
simply be rooting for the black line to move up rather faster than the red line
moves down in the months ahead.



(See attached file: D-NHSLTOT_Index.gif) - D-NHSLTOT_Index.gif

| | # 
Thursday, February 26, 2009 11:11:30 AM

January's release of New Home sales data continued to exhibit the recent
trend of a remarkably moribund new home sales market but also a fast
shrinking total inventory. January sales came in at an annualized run rate
of 309K (blue line, Left Hand Scale), down from 344K in December (which was
revised up from the original reading of 331K). This creates a new record
low for this nearly 50 year old data series. Interestingly whle the the
existing home market has also slowed shaprly it is still running at an
activity level equivalent to the fairly healthy market of the late 1990's -
possibly because activity in existing homes has been boosted by the
recycling of low-priced foreclosed properties in recent months.

Our main focus continues to be on the remaining inventory black line Right
Hand Scale) which has now fallen to 342K, the lowest reading since April
2003. Inventory is currently falling by over 28% on a year over year basis
(see green line on bottom chart) and is back at the long term average (pink
line) for this data series. Should sales activity ever turn higher (and the
current extreme low suggests that when it does it will do so powerfully) we
would expect inventory contraction to accelerate markedly. It may sound
crazy but a shortage of new homes may actually be an economic factor in the
latter part of 2009.


(See attached file: D-NHSLNFS.gif) - D-NHSLNFS.gif

| | # 
# Wednesday, 25 February 2009
Wednesday, February 25, 2009 9:23:20 AM

Some interesting comments - we have commmented on the unusual pattern of crude
(strong in the first couple of weeks of each contract month then very weak) -
the Crude ETF is certainly an important influence on this process.



more...
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Oil Fund Investors May Be Helping Suppress Prices, Schork Says
2009-02-25 14:18:08.1 GMT


By Alexander Kwiatkowski
Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Investors in an oil fund betting
crude will rise may be helping suppress prices, encouraging
supplies to remain in storage, analyst Stephen Schork said.
The United States Oil Fund, an exchange-traded fund that
tracks the price of West Texas Intermediate crude, has increased
its holdings to more than 20 percent of all front-month WTI
futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
“We assume they are buying the U.S. Oil Fund because they
are bullish,” Schork wrote in his daily report today. “But in
a peculiar way, their actions could be helping to prevent the
market from rallying.”
The size and influence of the fund may be giving market
participants the opportunity to profit by anticipating, or
“front running,” its trading activity, according to Schork.
The U.S. Oil Fund, managed by Alameda-based United States
Commodity Fund, maintains, or “rolls,” its holdings in WTI by
selling its front-month contracts and buying back second-month
futures on four predetermined days every month.
The fund’s size means the rolls can cause the front-month
prices to decline relative to second-month contracts, or widen
the so-called contango, Schork said. Market participants can
predict this effect and potentially profit by making the same
trade before the fund does. This may cause the contango to widen
further, according to Schork.
While the crude market remains in contango because of
weakening demand, “traders will continue to front-run the
rolls, which will in turn exacerbate the contango,” Schork
said. Contango increases the incentive to store oil and sell it
later “which will then ultimately weigh on prices,” he said.

Encourages Storage

Contango encourages storage because companies can buy oil
now and sell it at a higher price later. The difference in
prices must exceed the cost of storage and financing for storage
to be profitable.
John Hyland, Chief Investment Officer of United States
Commodity Fund, was not available for immediate comment.

--Editor: Will Kennedy, Rob Verdonck.

To contact the reporter on this story:
Alexander Kwiatkowski in London at +44-20-7330-7450 or
[email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Stephen Voss at +44-20-7073-3520 or [email protected]

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| | # 
# Monday, 23 February 2009
Monday, February 23, 2009 9:25:03 AM

We are finally starting to see signs that the ECB and its recalcitrant Chairman
are begining to comprehend the magnitude of problems facing the Euro-zone. Both
on Friday and over the weekend Trichet made comments that hinted at a major
change in ECB policy, which thus far has cut interest rates far less than the
US or UK and kept its balance sheet from expanding
significantly.
Capitulation by the ECB would be a potential
turning point in the crisis, not so much for what it would mean financially but
more psychologically. Cycles of this magnituded claim many victims along the
way and the reduction of the ECB's undeserved reputation of competence is a
necessary mile-post that will have to be passed on the road to recovery.



more...
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Trichet Says Falling Credit Supply May Undermine Banking System
2009-02-23 10:41:01.104 GMT


By Sandrine Rastello and Gabi Thesing
Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Jean-
Claude Trichet said a drop in the supply of credit to euro-area
companies and consumers could undermine the banking system if it
continues.
While “falling credit flows” are partly due to a drop in
demand, they may also reflect “supply-side factors and tight
financing conditions associated with a phenomenon of
deleveraging,” Trichet said in a speech to European securities
regulators in Paris today. “If such a behavior became widespread
across the banking system, it would undermine the raison d’etre of
the system as a whole.”
The global financial crisis that’s pushed Europe into its
worst recession since World War II has made banks more reluctant
to lend as well as curbing demand from companies and households
for credit. Loans to euro-area residents excluding government fell
0.4 percent in December from November, the first decline since
records began in 1991.
Trichet’s comments are “important because it’s the clearest
recognition to date that they are starting to see evidence of a
credit crunch,” said Jacques Cailloux, chief euro-area economist
Royal Bank of Scotland Plc in London.
The Frankfurt-based ECB has cut its benchmark interest rate
by 2.25 percentage points since early October to 2 percent. Still,
Trichet has said he doesn’t want to follow the example of the U.S.
Federal Reserve and lower rates to zero. He’s also been reluctant
say whether the ECB can follow the Fed and use unconventional
measures to help revive lending and economic growth, such as
buying government bonds or commercial paper.
Today’s comments are “the first acknowledgment that there is
a credit crunch since the crisis started,” said Laurent Bilke, an
economist at Nomura International in London. “It can justify
further credit-easing measures, such as intervention by the ECB to
selectively ease credit conditions on some markets.”

For Related News and Information:
On money markets: NI MMK BN <GO>
On the credit crunch: NI CRUNCH BN <GO>
Search for central bank stories: NSE MONETARY POLICY <GO>
Stories on ECB interest rates: STNI ECBACTION <GO>
Stories related to the ECB: NI ECB <GO>

--With reporting John Rega and Helene Fouquet in Paris. Editors:
Matthew Brockett, Alan Crosby

To contact the reporters on this story:
Gabi Thesing in Frankfurt at +49-69-9204-1201 or
[email protected];
Sandrine Rastello in Paris at +33-1-5365-5052 or
[email protected].

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
John Fraher at +44-20-7673-2058 or [email protected]

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| | # 
# Friday, 20 February 2009
Friday, February 20, 2009 12:48:30 PM

It is almost exactly 3 months since the SPX made its current bear market
low at 740 and we are once more within touching distance of this level.
However, this does not mean that effectively nothing has changed over this
time period since as the 2 attachments show group performance and the SPX
group weigtings have changed enormously over this period.

Looking at Level 2 group performance first we can see that outside of the
devastation of financial sector equity values the Transportation sector has
been a notable laggard. What may be more surprising is the large number of
groups showing positive performance over the last 3 months and their
identity. While Health Care equipment may be viewed as defensive (and
therefore currently popular) the same cannot be said of Retailing or the
various Technology sub-sectors to say nothing of Materials. As we have
written before, while the overall market has been unable to find traction
(and remains vulnerable to further losses) the underlying group performance
is not what would be typical of an economy slipping into depression.

The change in SPX group weigtings (which we have simplified to Level 1
Groups) is equally revealing. Since the November 21st low (marked by pink
dashed line) the financial sector's influence has collapsed to under 9% (of
which the banks are approximately 6%). While we expect further erosion of
financial equity values this is fast becoming numerically irrelevant to the
overall index. The big beneficiaries have been Technology and Healthcare.
While the latter may have good defensive qualities any recovery rally in
the overall market will require the former to show leadership, and this
would be a favored sector for any general attempt to play a bottoming in
the equity market.


(See attached file: spxlevel2groupreturns.gif)

(See attached file: D-.FINWGT_Index.gif) - spxlevel2groupreturns.gif -
D-.FINWGT_Index.gif

| | # 
Friday, February 20, 2009 9:46:43 AM

One of our favorite long term relationships is the ratio of PPI to CPI. To
remind readers periods of time during which this ratio falls indicate that
consumer prices are rising faster than producer prices, falling margins for
primary industries and generally lowering inflation. A rising ratio typically
coincides with higher margins and a rising trend in inflation. We use a 60
month (5 year) ma as an approximate indication of the long term trend in the
data.

As the attached chart shows the relationship bottomed in 2002 which
coincides with the end of the 2 decade bear market in many commodities and
the 2000-2002 recession. The next 6 years were followed by a significant
outperformance by PPI which culminated in the blow-off top for commodity
markets last summer amidst a global fear of rising inflation. Not
surprisingly there has been a very sharp retracement of both PPI and the
PPI/CPI ratio over the last 6 months (and we don't hear much about the dangers
of inflation), but so far the ratio has only pulled back to its rising trend at
the 60 month ma. At its current level the ratio is not suggesting any
likelihood of deflation taking hold in the US economy and may already even be
hinting at a re-acceleration of inflationary tendencies. With M2 growing at a
15% annualized rate over the last 5 months (a level of growth endorsed publicly
by Chairman Bernanke this week) this is what the monetarist textbooks would
tell you to expect and they are yet to be proven incorrect.



(See attached file: M-.PPI_CPI_Index.gif) - M-.PPI_CPI_Index.gif

| | # 
Friday, February 20, 2009 8:21:38 AM

After several weeks of shrinking back its balance sheet the FRB is
apparently back in the expansion game. Under the doctrine of "credit
easing" this process is driven by a wish to intervene in a specific credit
market and this week's expansion is largely accounted for by the fact that
the program of purchasing GSE backed MBS securities has finally begun in
earnest. We therefore include a new line in pink on the lower chart which
will track FRB holdings of MBS on a weekly basis.

As would be expected the expansion of the FRB's balance sheet has resulted
in a significant increase in Reserve Bank balances (green line) presumably
because many of the MBS securities purchased belonged to commercial banks.
We had been concerned that banks cash balances were falling back due to the
FRB's recent balance sheet shrinkage but given this weeks' boost to Reserve
Balances and the fact that the TALF roll-out has yet to take place this
particular problem would seem to have been resolved.


(See attached file: D-FARBCRED_Index.gif) - D-FARBCRED_Index.gif

| | # 
# Thursday, 19 February 2009
Thursday, February 19, 2009 9:22:41 AM

Today's release of January PPI data showed a surprising resilience in
Producer Prices with both the headline rate (black line on chart) and
ex-food and energy rate (red line on chart) coming in comfortably higher than
consensus at -1.0% (consensus -2.40%) and 4.2% (consensus 3.8%) respectively.
Interestingly this keeps headline PPI significantly higher than it was
during the depths of the 2002 deflation scare, despite the fact that this
fear is far more widely held at the current time. Clearly PPI remains
junior to CPI (which is published tomorrow) in the "data hierarchy" but
this does not mean that it should simply be dismissed.

The negative spread between the headline and "core" rate (green line on
lower chart) has also never been greater (again a reaction to the record
positive spread last summer). It does therefore appear that outside of the
energy sector (which is still paying back the undeserved windfall generated from
2007 to mid 2008) there remains reasonable pricing power for primary
industries, and clearly more than has been anticipated by the consensus
view. We would not call a headline PPI in negative territory in any way
"inflationary" but it is hardly "depression" territory either.


(See attached file: M-PPI_YOY_Index.gif) - M-PPI_YOY_Index.gif

| | # 
# Wednesday, 18 February 2009
Wednesday, February 18, 2009 1:14:35 PM

While we have focussed on the implications of Chinese monetary growth for their
domestic economy the substantial loosening of lending restriction would also
have clear implications for foreign acquisitions.



more...
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

China Feasts on Miners as ‘Bank of Last Resort’ (Update1)
2009-02-18 07:55:21.250 GMT


(Adds China’s foreign currency plans in fifth paragraph.)

By Helen Yuan and Rebecca Keenan
Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Wuhan Iron & Steel Group and Jiangsu
Shagang Group Co., China’s third- and fifth-largest steelmakers,
are shopping for iron ore mining stakes in Australia and Brazil,
executives said in interviews.
“We are evaluating and selecting” candidates in Australia
and Brazil, said Shen Wenrong, Jiangsu-based Shagang’s chairman.
“Going overseas is the government policy, so I believe we will
get financing from Chinese banks.” Wuhan spokesman Bai Fang said
his company is “looking for opportunities” amid lower
acquisition costs for iron ore assets in Australia and “won’t
rule out other countries.”
The world’s top metal user, China has agreed to acquire $22
billion worth of commodity assets this year after a 70 percent
drop in metals and oil since July ended a six-year boom in raw
materials. With U.S. and Australian banks still hesitant to lend,
Rio Tinto Group and OZ Minerals Ltd., laboring under combined
debt of $40 billion, agreed this month to sell stakes to Aluminum
Corp. of China and China Minmetals Corp., respectively.
“China has turned out to be the bank of last resort,” said
Glyn Lawcock, head of resources research at UBS AG in Sydney.
“China is a net importer of copper, bauxite, alumina, nickel,
zircon, uranium. China is looking for ways to secure supply of
these raw materials.”

Foreign Exchange Purchases

China, whose $1.95 trillion in currency reserves are the
world’s largest, plans to spend more foreign exchange on imports
and acquisitions. The State Administration for Foreign Exchange
said today it will make it easier for companies to purchase
foreign-exchange for their overseas investments.
Commodity acquisitions by China would put increasing amounts
of the world’s raw materials under control of their biggest
consumer and may allow it to influence prices. The investment by
Aluminum Corp., or Chinalco as the state-owned entity is known,
into Rio may bolster China’s bargaining power to set iron ore
prices, China Iron and Steel Association said.
China’s plan to boost the economy with 4 trillion ($585
billion) yuan in spending on roads, bridges and other
infrastructure has pushed up prices for steel and iron ore by as
much as 37 percent and the cost of shipping commodities has more
than doubled.

Oil Fund

The nation may set up an oil fund using part of the reserves
to help companies buy fields abroad, according to a statement
this week by the China National Petroleum Corp., the country’s
biggest oil producer. China this week agreed to provide $25
billion of loans to Russia in return for oil supplies for the
next 20 years.
Australia already has signaled concern that China is buying
strategic assets on the cheap. Treasurer Wayne Swan last week
tightened takeover laws when Chinalco announced its investment in
London-based Rio Tinto, the world’s third-largest mining company.
Swan has the power to reject both that deal and Minmetals’
proposition with Melbourne-based OZ Minerals on national interest
grounds. When Peter Costello was Australia’s treasurer in 2001,
he blocked Royal Dutch Shell Plc’s bid for Woodside Petroleum Ltd.
In 2004, Minmetals failed to reach an accord to buy Noranda Inc.
amid objections from Canadian politicians.
China’s acquisition hunt is happening as the government
ponders where to invest its currency reserves, which increased 27
percent in the past year to about 29 percent of the world’s total.
The country already owns $696.2 billion in Treasuries, about 12
percent of the U.S.’s outstanding marketable debt and has been
stung by losses of more than $5 billion on $10.5 billion invested
in Blackstone Group LP and Morgan Stanley in New York and TPG Inc.
in Fort Worth, Texas, since mid-2007.

‘Burnt’ Hands

“China has burnt its hands in the past buying liquid assets
like Blackstone, but here they have the chance to buy tangible,
useful assets,” said Professor Liu Baocheng at the University of
International Business & Economics in Beijing. “There’s no point
putting money in the bank or in deposits with low returns.”
China consumes over a third of the world’s aluminum output,
a quarter of its copper production, almost a tenth of its oil and
it accounts for more than half of the trading in iron ore. Last
year, China bought $211 billion worth of iron ore, refined copper,
crude oil and alumina.
The deals by Chinalco and Minmetals, both based in Beijing
and controlled by the state, come amid difficulties that
Australian mining companies face in borrowing A$26 billion to
fund for new projects, as detailed in a September UBS report.
Chinalco agreed on Feb. 12 to spend $19.5 billion to acquire
debt and stakes in Rio Tinto’s mines in Australia, Indonesia, the
U.S. and Chile. Rio was forced to seek a deal from its biggest
shareholder to help reduce $38.9 billion of debt largely incurred
from its 2007 acquisition of Alcan Inc. Rio’s high-level of debt
was one of the reasons why BHP Billiton Ltd. abandoned its $66
billion hostile bid for Rio in November. Chinalco will increase
its stake in Rio to 18 percent should it convert the debt.

OZ Minerals Takeover

Minmetals on Feb. 16 said it will take over OZ Minerals for
A$2.6 billion ($1.7 billion) and assume debt of A$1.2 billion.
In addition to Wuhan and Shagang, Zijin Mining Group Co.,
China’s largest bullion producer, may spend as much as 20 billion
yuan on acquisitions, Chen Jinghe, chairman of the Fujian-based
company, said Nov. 11. Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. said on Dec. 5
that it is looking at deals, following an Australian Financial
Review report that the Shandong-based company wanted to buy Felix
Resources Ltd. in Australia for more than A$3 billion.
Fortescue Metals Group Ltd., Australia’s third-largest iron
ore exporter, surged 12 percent today after it said it held
investment talks with China Investment Corp., the nation’s
sovereign wealth fund, and Anglo American Plc. Talks are
“preliminary and incomplete”, the Perth-based company said.
China Investment may bring in Baosteel Group Corp. and China
Shenhua Energy Co. as partners to invest in Fortescue, the South
China Morning Post said Nov. 17, citing people it didn’t identify.

‘Chunky Deals’

Excluding the $22 billion of spending this year, Chinese
companies last year bought stakes or control of Australian iron
ore producers Midwest Corp. and Murchison Metals Ltd. and metals
explorer Abra Mining Ltd. In August, China Shenhua Energy Co.,
the world’s largest coal producer by value, won a coal
exploration license in Australia for A$300 million.
“I would’ve thought there is probably many billions of
dollars still to come because China does have enormous financial
firepower,” said Peter Arden, an analyst in Melbourne at Ord
Minnett Ltd., an affiliate of JPMorgan Chase & Co. “We will see
some more chunky deals being done.”

For Related News and Information:
Top metals: METT <GO>
Rio Tinto stories: RIO AU <Equity> CN <GO>
Mining M&A: TNI MNG MNA <GO>
LME copper prices: LMCADS03 <Comdty> GPO <GO>

--With reporting by Jesse Riseborough in Melbourne, John Duce in
Hong Kong, Xiao Yu and Wang Ying in Beijing and Winnie Zhu in
Shanghai. Editors: Tan Hwee Ann, Richard Dobson.

To contact the reporters for this story:
Helen Yuan in Shanghai at +86-21-6104-7012 or
[email protected];
Rebecca Keenan in Melbourne at +61-3-9228-8721 or
[email protected].

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Teo Chian Wei at +65-6212-1541 or [email protected]

collapse
| | # 
# Tuesday, 17 February 2009
Tuesday, February 17, 2009 1:29:08 PM

As this article correctly points our the Riverton auction will be a valuable
data-point for the CMBS market.



more...
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Manhattan’s Riverton Apartments Set for Auction Block (Update1)
2009-02-17 18:20:54.554 GMT


(Adds Stuyvesant Town beginning in eighth paragraph.)

By Sarah Mulholland
Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Riverton Apartments, a high-rise
complex in Manhattan’s Harlem neighborhood, is set to be
auctioned off Feb. 20 because owners Rockpoint Group LLC and
Stellar Management have been unable to modify loan terms,
according to Trepp LLC, a commercial real estate data company.
A recent appraisal valued the property at $196 million,
compared with a valuation of as much as $340 million when the
complex was last appraised in December 2006, Trepp said in an e-
mail citing loan servicer data.
The Riverton loan was packaged into bonds as part of a $6.6
billion commercial mortgage debt offering sold in March 2007 by
Citigroup Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG, according to Bloomberg data.
If the property were to sell for $196 million, the commercial
mortgage bond trust would take a loss of $29 million plus
expenses, according to Trepp estimates.
“The sale of the property, should it take place, will be
closely watched by the CMBS market as investors try to get a
sense of what properties like the Riverton are worth,” Trepp
said. “The value of the Riverton in foreclosure would give the
market a new benchmark.”
Delinquencies on commercial mortgages bundled and sold as
bonds may triple by late 2009 as large real estate loans default,
Standard & Poor’s said today.

Late Payments

Late payments on commercial mortgages reached 1.10 percent
during the fourth quarter of 2008, and have been climbing since
the low of 0.27 percent in March 2007, S&P said in a statement.
The commercial real estate market is in the early stages of a
correction, and delinquencies may reach 3.5 percent this year,
the New York-based ratings company said.
Yields on commercial real estate securities rose to near
record highs relative to benchmarks in August when a trustee
report showed Rockpoint and Stellar would likely miss their
September payment.
Loans against the Riverton were financed using income
projections that assumed rent-stabilized apartments in the
complex would be converted to market-rate faster than they have
been.
Tishman Speyer Properties LP and BlackRock Realty relied on
similar projections when they purchased Stuyvesant Town and Peter
Cooper Village, Manhattan’s largest apartment complex, for $5.4
billion in 2006.
A reserve fund for Stuyvesant Town and Peter Cooper may run
dry in six months unless it’s replenished, New York-based Fitch
Ratings said in a Jan. 23 report.

For Related News and Information:
Stories about asset-backed securities: TNI US ABS <GO>
For top bond news: TOP BON <GO>
Commercial mortgage backed securities news: NI CMBS <GO>
Citigroup financial analysis: C US <Equity> FA1 <GO>

--Editors: Sharon L. Lynch, Alan Mirabella

To contact the reporter on this story:
Sarah Mulholland in New York at +1-212-617-2966 or
[email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Alan Mirabella at +1-212-617-4149 or [email protected].

collapse
| | # 
Tuesday, February 17, 2009 8:13:26 AM

Fiscal Stimulus Is a Ruse Absent Fed Pixie Dust: Caroline Baum Feb ...


One of the few commentators who understands that it is the FRB not Congress or
the Treasury that is the key operator in the current crisis
<>


 

| | # 
# Friday, 13 February 2009
Friday, February 13, 2009 11:24:22 AM

While virtually every real estate related metric continues to deteriorate
one area of significant improvement is the affordability of housing.
Today's release of the quarterly National Association of Realtors Homebuyer
Affordability Index came in with a reading of 146.5, making housing more
affordable than at any time since this data series commenced in 1986 and
compares with the 3 year trailing average (red line) of 117. Note
that this index gives a reading of 100 when the average house is exactly
affordable for the average income at prevailing mortgage rates (all data as
calculated by the NAR). Given how the 1st quarter has commenced with both
mortgage rates and house prices continuing to fall affordability seems
likely to register another sizeable new record when this data is next
published in May.

Affordability can never repair a speculative bust by itself (and we are
well aware of the issues surrounding foreclosure rates and negative equity)
but today's data does suggest that neither home prices or mortgage rates
are key issues, other than their impact on the future foreclosure rates and
losses incurred.


(See attached file: D-HOMECOMP_Index.gif) - D-HOMECOMP_Index.gif

| | # 
Friday, February 13, 2009 8:36:18 AM

Last week we posed the question as to whether there was any reason to hold
out hope for a rebound in the emerging market economies following the sharp
slowdown in the 2nd half of 2008. We return to that question today and
while the catalyst last time was rising freight rates today's data is
purely monetary.

Attached is a chart showing Chinese M2 (top chart, black) and its quarterly
growth rate (middle chart, green) together with the total new loans issued
(bottom chart, red). All data is monthly. As can be seen the Chinese
monetary authorities responded very powerfully to the slowdown and have
massively boosted M2 growth to its highest quarterly growth rate since the
data started in 1998. If this rate were to be sustained for a full year
(which we doubt would happen) M2 growth would reach well over 50%, compared
to the annual growth of around 15% over the last 5 years. Perhaps more
importantly the New Loan data shows that this monetary boost has had an
immediate and dramatic effect on actual loan extension with January's new
loans being over double the prior record and approximately 4 times the
average over the last 12 months.

This massive boost in borrowing certainly suggests that there was
significant pent-up demand for debt in the Chinese economy. Of course this
is not entirely positive, it may be that some loans are being hurriedly
applied for in order to cover cash flow shortfalls resulting from the
collapse in demand. By and large, however, this sort of rapid acceleration
in credit and monetary growth tends to be highly stimulative and we would
advise readers to pay significant attention to both economic data and asset
price performance in sectors connected to the Chinese economy (which would
most obviously include the material sector and countries such as Brazil) in
the coming weeks.




(See attached file: D-CNMSM2_Index.gif) - D-CNMSM2_Index.gif

| | # 
Friday, February 13, 2009 7:31:57 AM

We continue to track the weekly changes in the FRB balance sheet and as we
recently discussed, the policy of "Credit Easing" (CE) that was recently
outlined by Chairman Bernanke is now about to be rolled out in its entirety
(see Speculator Extra - Credit Easing 2 February 11th 2009) .

An important part of this new policy is not simply expanding the FRB balance
sheet for its own sake or allowing money to sit passively in the commercial
banks' reserve accounts without seeing it recycled into credit markets and
this week's H.4 data shows this policy in action. the overall size of the
FRB balance sheet (black line top chart) dropped by $13 bln (0.56%),
indicating perhaps that the FRB is satisfied with the 20% reduction in its
balance sheet that it has engineered since the start of the year. However, the
size of reserve balances (green line on bottom chart) dropped by $58bln
(8.84%) to $603.4 bln and reserve balances are now $275 bln below their early
January level. We would expect to see a sharp drop in commercial banks' cash
holdings in tomorrow's H8 release (remember this lags the H.4 FRB data by over
1 week).

It is the clearly stated intention of the FRB to replace the funds drained
off reserves with a greatly expanded TALF and so it is difficult to portray
this shift in policy as restrictive, more accurately it represents an
attempt for monetary policy to take a more activist line that seeks to
positively influence specific credit markets. While we can understand the
logic behind this (and believe it might even prove effective) there is a danger
that shrinking reserves prior to the new TALF funds being added will place some
strain on the commercial banks and therefore shorter the lag between these 2
events the better.



(See attached file: D-FARBCRED_Index.gif) - D-FARBCRED_Index.gif

| | # 
# Thursday, 12 February 2009
Thursday, February 12, 2009 4:59:14 PM

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=abM5RnQUezPA

| | # 
# Monday, 09 February 2009
Monday, February 9, 2009 9:36:14 AM

As long term Treasury yields approach our upside targets (3.00% for 10 year
and 3.80% for 30 year) one of the key determinants of FRB intervention is
likely to be the response of other credit markets. When looking at the long
bond the 30 year FNM bond is surely the most important yield to consider
since it in turn drives the rate of the conforming 30 year fixed mortgage.

The attached chart shows the yield spread of the 30 Year FNM bond to
Treasury. As it demonstrates over 20 bp of the recent back up in yields has
been absorbed by a collapse in the spread, which at 75.4 is roughly where
it was at the start of the post-Lehman liquidation. The chart also suggests
that if the spread falls below 75bp the trend may continue to the mid-low
60's. Such an outcome would make it significantly less likely that the FRB
would feel inclined to intervene directly in the Treasury market provided
that 30 year Treasury yields do not rise further than 4.00%.



(See attached file: D-FNMGVN30.gif) - D-FNMGVN30.gif

| | # 
# Thursday, 05 February 2009
Thursday, February 5, 2009 1:49:24 PM

A interesting note from Moody's that outlines some of the metrics that will be
used to determine the validity of the US Aaa rating going forward, which
includes the new (at least to us and the OED) term "Dimensioning". Apparently
this involves calling something very, very large while trying to argue it is
not too
big.
As the
ongoing debate with GE demonstrates the true test of a the validity of an Aaa
rating is whether or not you need to discuss it in the first place.



more...
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Moody's Comments: Dimensioning US Government Debt
2009-02-05 18:34:08.249 GMT



London New York
Pierre Cailleteau Steven A. Hess
Managing Director VP - Senior Credit Officer
Sovereign Risk Group Sovereign Risk Group
Moody's Investors Service Ltd.Moody's Investors Service
JOURNALISTS: 44 20 7772 5456 JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 44 20 7772 5454 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653



Moody's Comments: Dimensioning US Government Debt




New York, February 05, 2009 -- The US government's financial position is
projected to worsen considerably over the coming two years as a result of
measures taken to aid the financial sector, the effects of the recession
and the upcoming stimulus package, says Moody's Investors Service in a
new report entitled "Dimensioning US Government Debt."

The report is not a rating analysis, with Moody's US government rating
retaining a stable outlook, but aims at shedding light on what Moody's
considers to be the government debt metrics relevant to investors, just
at the time when announced or assumed liabilities are accumulating at a
fast pace. It also discusses the pertinent perimeter for sovereign risk
analysis.

The report cautions that simply adding up liabilities does not provide a
sound perspective on how burdensome the debt has become for the
government, nor does it enlighten the debate about the strength of the US
government balance sheet on a comparative basis.

At the end of fiscal year 2008, debt borrowed from creditors outside the
federal government, the most relevant measure of federal government debt,
amounted to $5.8 trillion, equivalent to 40.8% of US GDP. "Compared with
the central government debt of other Aaa-rated countries, this is a
moderate level. However, total debt held by the public is projected to
rise by more than half during the coming two years, reaching $9.0
trillion, or 62% of GDP by the end of fiscal year 2010," says Steven
Hess, a Moody's Vice President/Senior Credit Officer. "In the meantime,
however, most other Aaa governments will see their debt metrics
deteriorate as well", he adds.

Moody's also examines the ratio of this debt to the federal government's
own revenue, which is a measure of the resources available at any moment
to repay the debt. At the end of fiscal year 2008, the ratio was 230%,
quite high for a Aaa-rated country. Moreover, this is also forecast to
rise steeply in the next two years, reaching 378% by the end of fiscal
year 2010. The burden of the debt, measured as the ratio of interest paid
to the government's revenue, is another important indicator. In fiscal
year 2009, this ratio is projected at about 9.5%, also a high level among
Aaa countries.

The Moody's report discusses various federal government contingent
liabilities that may or may not materialize. The analysis assesses, for
example, the position of government pension funds, state and local
government debt, and bank recapitalization costs. These are looked at in
two dimensions: How binding is the government's obligation to honor these
liabilities? And how do we value the amount that may be paid? "Such a
mapping of total liabilities," says Mr. Hess, "helps demystify the large
amounts of money that the US government, like the other governments
affected by the crisis, continues to announce, and helps gauge how truly
affected public finances are".

Treasury purchases of GSE (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) preferred stock
and purchases under the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) of
commercial bank preferred stock and, possibly, mortgage-backed or other
securities are set to have an adverse impact on the US government
financial position. Moody's notes that the gross debt will also be
increased by the fiscal stimulus package proposed by the incoming
administration, now estimated at $825 billion over the next two years.
However, it should also be noted that the possible future disposal of
assets acquired by the government through its measures to aid the
financial sector may affect the rating agency's opinion of whether the
upward trend in debt ratios is reversible.

Moody's further cautions that, whether in 2010 or after, interest rates
are almost certain to rise from their current low levels and the
affordability of the federal government debt will deteriorate.

Going forward, the US ratios will worsen, but Moody's believes it is
likely that those of most other Aaa-rated governments will worsen as
well. The comparative position of the US in this context will be examined
in a forthcoming paper on the effect of the global financial crisis on
Aaa-rated government balance sheets. The paper will look at the ability
of countries to "grow out of their debt" and take fiscal adjustment
measures.

Please see moodys.com for the Special Comment: "Dimensioning US
Government Debt."

* * * * *



NOTE TO JOURNALISTS: For more information please contact New York Press
Information +1-212-553-0376; EMEA Press Information in London
+44-20-7772-5456; Juan Pablo Soriano in Madrid +34-91-310-1454; Alex
Cataldo in Milan +39-02-914-81-100; Eric de Bodard in Paris
+331-5330-1076; Detlef Scholz in Frankfurt +49-69-707-30-700; Mardig
Haladjian in Limassol +357-25-586-586; Alex Sazhin in Moscow
+7495-641-1881; Petr Vins in Prague +4202 2422 2929; Tokyo Press
Information +813-5408-4110; Hilary Parkes in Toronto +1-416-214-1635;
Hong Kong Press Information +852-2916-1150; Sydney Press Information
+612 9270 8102; Luiz Tess in São Paulo +5511-3043-7300; Alberto Jones
Tamayo in Mexico City +5255-1253-5700; Daniel Rúas in Buenos Aires +54

11-4816-2332 ext. 105; Craig Jamieson in Johannesburg +27-11-217-5470;
Jehad el-Nakla in Dubai +971 4 365 0284; or visit our web site at
www.moodys.com







CREDIT RATINGS ARE MIS'S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF
ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES. MIS DEFINES
CREDIT
RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL, FINANCIAL
OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF
DEFAULT. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED
TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDIT RATINGS ARE
NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT CONSTITUTE
INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND CREDIT RATINGS ARE NOT RECOMMENDATIONS TO
PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT COMMENT
ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR. MIS ISSUES ITS
CREDIT RATINGS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL
MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION
FOR PURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE.

Copyright 2009, Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and
affiliates including Moody's Assurance Company, Inc. (together, "MOODY'S").
All rights reserved.

ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY COPYRIGHT LAW AND NONE OF SUCH
INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER
TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR
SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER
OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY'S PRIOR WRITTEN
CONSENT. All information contained herein is obtained by MOODY'S from sources
believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human
or mechanical error as well as other factors, however, such information is
provided "as is" without warranty of any kind and MOODY'S, in particular,
makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy,
timeliness, completeness, merchantability or fitness for any particular
purpose of any such information. Under no circumstances shall MOODY'S have any
liability to any person or entity for (a) any loss or damage in whole or in
part caused by, resulting from, or relating to, any error (negligent or
otherwise) or other circumstance or contingency within or outside the control
of MOODY'S or any of its directors, officers, employees or agents in
connection with the procurement, collection, compilation, analysis,
interpretation, communication, publication or delivery of any such
information, or (b) any direct, indirect, special, consequential, compensatory
or incidental damages whatsoever (including without limitation, lost profits),
even if MOODY'S is advised in advance of the possibility of such damages,
resulting from the use of or inability to use, any such information. The
credit ratings and financial reporting analysis observations, if any,
constituting part of the information contained herein are, and must be
construed solely as, statements of opinion and not statements of fact or
recommendations to purchase, sell or hold any securities. NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS
OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR
FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY SUCH RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR
INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODY'S IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER. Each
rating or other opinion must be weighed solely as one factor in any investment
decision made by or on behalf of any user of the information contained herein,
and each such user must accordingly make its own study and evaluation of each
security and of each issuer and guarantor of, and each provider of credit
support for, each security that it may consider purchasing, holding or
selling. MOODY'S hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities
(including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial
paper) and preferred stock rated by MOODY'S have, prior to assignment of any
rating, agreed to pay to MOODY'S for appraisal and rating services rendered by
it fees ranging from $1,500 to $2,400,000. Moody's Corporation (MCO) and its
wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary, Moody's Investors Service (MIS),
also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MIS's
ratings and rating processes. Information regarding certain affiliations that
may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities, and between entities
who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an
ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted annually on Moody's
website at www.moodys.com under the heading "Shareholder Relations - Corporate
Governance - Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy."
Moody's Investors Service Pty Limited does not hold an Australian financial
services licence under the Corporations Act. This credit rating opinion has
been prepared without taking into account any of your objectives, financial
situation or needs. You should, before acting on the opinion, consider the
appropriateness of the opinion having regard to your own objectives, financial
situation and needs.
end

Provider ID: 00473989
-0- Feb/05/2009 18:34 GMT

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| | # 
Thursday, February 5, 2009 1:39:31 PM

Moody's announces a comprehensive review of CMBS. The market has clearly
anticipated massive downgrades already but it will be interesting to see the
results of this review.



more...
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Moody's announces review of Certain U.S. CMBS Ratings
2009-02-05 18:02:19.231 GMT



New York New York
Nick Levidy Michael M. Gerdes
Managing Director Senior Vice President
Structured Finance Group Structured Finance Group
Moody's Investors Service Moody's Investors Service
JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376 JOURNALISTS: 212-553-0376
SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653 SUBSCRIBERS: 212-553-1653



Moody's announces review of Certain U.S. CMBS Ratings




New York, February 05, 2009 -- Moody's Investors Service has announced a
ratings review of all U.S. commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS)
conduit and fusion transactions rated during the period from 2006 through
2008, and all large loan and single borrower transactions regardless of
vintage. The review will reflect adjustments Moody's is making to two key
inputs to its CMBS rating model -- stressed capitalization rates and
property cash flows.

The transactions under review have an outstanding balance of $302.6
billion, which represents 52% percent of all outstanding Moody's-rated
U.S. CMBS by dollar volume. Moody's expects to complete this review by
the end of the first quarter of 2009. As announced in December, a review
of commercial real estate collateralized debt obligations (CRE CDOs) is
being conducted and will reflect any changes in the ratings of the
underlying CMBS bonds.

Ratings of super senior and mezzanine Aaa-rated tranches, which represent
72% of the securities under review, should not be affected by these
adjustments. However, Moody's expects other senior investment grade rated
bonds in conduit and fusion transactions, including the junior Aaa-rated
classes, to be downgraded by four to five notches on average. Low
investment grade and speculative grade rated bonds are likely to be
downgraded by five to six notches on average. Downgrades of bonds backed
by large loan and single borrower deals, which are typically secured by
larger, higher quality properties than conduit deals, are expected to be
two to three notches on average across rating categories.

Moody's generally rated conduit and fusion transactions from 2006 through
2008 to an expected loss of about 2%, but now expects that deals from
these vintages will experience losses of approximately 5% on average.
Conduit transactions are pools of commercial real estate loans with
geographic, property type, borrower, and tenant diversification. A fusion
transaction is a conduit deal that also has one or more large loans sized
with lower leverage and higher debt service coverage.

"Property values declined sharply in 2008 and we anticipate further
declines over the next 12 to 24 months," says Moody's Managing Director,
Nick Levidy. "Delinquencies on CMBS loans are also on the rise, and we
expect the pace to accelerate as macroeconomic pressures take a toll on
property cash flows."

In this ratings review, Moody's will be using its Commercial Mortgage
Metrics (CMM) to forecast property level cash flows. CMM, which
incorporates the macroeconomic forecasts of MoodysEconomy.com, allows
Moody's to more quickly develop individualized stressed net cash flow
estimates on a property-by-property and market-by-market basis.

"Early in the current economic crisis, our biggest concern was the impact
of a liquidity crunch on commercial real estate," says Moody's Senior
Vice President, Michael Gerdes. "However, Moody's now expects a
significant overall decline in property cash flows as a result of a
higher incidence of tenant defaults and bankruptcies and a sharp decline
in lease renewal rates."

In addition to updating property level cash flows, Moody's will adjust
the stressed capitalization rates used in its analytics upwards by 50
basis points reflecting changing market conditions. Capitalization rates
are a ratio of net income from the property to its value.

For more information see "Rating Methodology Update: U.S. CMBS Review
Prompted by Declining Property Values and Rising Delinquencies" dated
February 5, 2009 available on Moodys.com.

* * *

NOTE TO JOURNALISTS ONLY: For more information please contact New York
Press Information +1-212-553-0376; EMEA Press Information in London
+44-20-7772-5456; Juan Pablo Soriano in Madrid +34-91-310-1454; Alex
Cataldo in Milan +39-02-914-81-100; Eric de Bodard in Paris
+331-5330-1076; Detlef Scholz in Frankfurt +49-69-707-30-700; Mardig
Haladjian in Limassol +357-25-586-586; Alex Sazhin in Moscow +7 495 228
60 60; Petr Vins in Prague +4202 2422 2929; Tokyo Press Information
+813-5408-4110; Hilary Parkes in Toronto +1-416-214-1635; Hong Kong
Press Information +852-2916-1150; Hector Lim in Sydney +612 9270 8102;
Luiz Tess in São Paulo +5511-3043-7300; Alberto Jones Tamayo in Mexico
City +5255-1253-5700; Daniel Rúas in Buenos Aires +54 11-4816-2332 ext.
105; Craig Jamieson in Johannesburg +27-11-217-5470; Jehad el-Nakla in
Dubai +971 4 401 9536; or visit our web site at www.moodys.com





CREDIT RATINGS ARE MIS'S CURRENT OPINIONS OF THE RELATIVE FUTURE CREDIT RISK OF
ENTITIES, CREDIT COMMITMENTS, OR DEBT OR DEBT-LIKE SECURITIES. MIS DEFINES
CREDIT
RISK AS THE RISK THAT AN ENTITY MAY NOT MEET ITS CONTRACTUAL, FINANCIAL
OBLIGATIONS AS THEY COME DUE AND ANY ESTIMATED FINANCIAL LOSS IN THE EVENT OF
DEFAULT. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT ADDRESS ANY OTHER RISK, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED
TO: LIQUIDITY RISK, MARKET VALUE RISK, OR PRICE VOLATILITY. CREDIT RATINGS ARE
NOT STATEMENTS OF CURRENT OR HISTORICAL FACT. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT CONSTITUTE
INVESTMENT OR FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND CREDIT RATINGS ARE NOT RECOMMENDATIONS TO
PURCHASE, SELL, OR HOLD PARTICULAR SECURITIES. CREDIT RATINGS DO NOT COMMENT
ON THE SUITABILITY OF AN INVESTMENT FOR ANY PARTICULAR INVESTOR. MIS ISSUES ITS
CREDIT RATINGS WITH THE EXPECTATION AND UNDERSTANDING THAT EACH INVESTOR WILL
MAKE ITS OWN STUDY AND EVALUATION OF EACH SECURITY THAT IS UNDER CONSIDERATION
FOR PURCHASE, HOLDING, OR SALE.

Copyright 2009, Moody's Investors Service, Inc. and/or its licensors and
affiliates including Moody's Assurance Company, Inc. (together, "MOODY'S").
All rights reserved.

ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY COPYRIGHT LAW AND NONE OF SUCH
INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER
TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR
SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER
OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY'S PRIOR WRITTEN
CONSENT. All information contained herein is obtained by MOODY'S from sources
believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human
or mechanical error as well as other factors, however, such information is
provided "as is" without warranty of any kind and MOODY'S, in particular,
makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy,
timeliness, completeness, merchantability or fitness for any particular
purpose of any such information. Under no circumstances shall MOODY'S have any
liability to any person or entity for (a) any loss or damage in whole or in
part caused by, resulting from, or relating to, any error (negligent or
otherwise) or other circumstance or contingency within or outside the control
of MOODY'S or any of its directors, officers, employees or agents in
connection with the procurement, collection, compilation, analysis,
interpretation, communication, publication or delivery of any such
information, or (b) any direct, indirect, special, consequential, compensatory
or incidental damages whatsoever (including without limitation, lost profits),
even if MOODY'S is advised in advance of the possibility of such damages,
resulting from the use of or inability to use, any such information. The
credit ratings and financial reporting analysis observations, if any,
constituting part of the information contained herein are, and must be
construed solely as, statements of opinion and not statements of fact or
recommendations to purchase, sell or hold any securities. NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS
OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR
FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY SUCH RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR
INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY MOODY'S IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER. Each
rating or other opinion must be weighed solely as one factor in any investment
decision made by or on behalf of any user of the information contained herein,
and each such user must accordingly make its own study and evaluation of each
security and of each issuer and guarantor of, and each provider of credit
support for, each security that it may consider purchasing, holding or
selling. MOODY'S hereby discloses that most issuers of debt securities
(including corporate and municipal bonds, debentures, notes and commercial
paper) and preferred stock rated by MOODY'S have, prior to assignment of any
rating, agreed to pay to MOODY'S for appraisal and rating services rendered by
it fees ranging from $1,500 to $2,400,000. Moody's Corporation (MCO) and its
wholly-owned credit rating agency subsidiary, Moody's Investors Service (MIS),
also maintain policies and procedures to address the independence of MIS's
ratings and rating processes. Information regarding certain affiliations that
may exist between directors of MCO and rated entities, and between entities
who hold ratings from MIS and have also publicly reported to the SEC an
ownership interest in MCO of more than 5%, is posted annually on Moody's
website at www.moodys.com under the heading "Shareholder Relations - Corporate
Governance - Director and Shareholder Affiliation Policy."
Moody's Investors Service Pty Limited does not hold an Australian financial
services licence under the Corporations Act. This credit rating opinion has
been prepared without taking into account any of your objectives, financial
situation or needs. You should, before acting on the opinion, consider the
appropriateness of the opinion having regard to your own objectives, financial
situation and needs.
end

Provider ID: 00473976
-0- Feb/05/2009 18:02 GMT

collapse
| | # 
Thursday, February 5, 2009 8:50:37 AM

While gold has attracted significant headline space in recent weeks
silver's strong recovery from its 2008 decline has received much less
attention. As the attached chart shows silver is worth paying some attention to
since the recent rise in gold has been more than matched by silver's own
advance. The lower panel (green line) which shows the rising ratio of Silver to
Gold demonstrates this outperformance and silver remains far below both the
price and ratio to gold that it reached in the bubbly days of mid 2008.

Looking at silver's price chart we can see the metal is targeting a move up
to test resistance at the September and October highs in the $13.80 -
$14.00 range. With MACD starting to move into comfortably positive
territory it seems likely that the metal's advance will reach at least the
lower end of this range, at which point a degree of short term
consolidation may be required.


(See attached file: D-SILV_Comdty.gif) - D-SILV_Comdty.gif

| | # 
# Wednesday, 04 February 2009
Wednesday, February 4, 2009 6:25:39 PM

These are significant increases in the scope of the FDIC - while I would not
present this as somehing unexpected it formalizes the process that has been
developing since the LEH crisis and makes the rushed changes permanent.



more...
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

FDIC Bid to Expand Borrowing Gains; Panel Raises Insurance Cap
2009-02-04 23:20:05.880 GMT


By Margaret Chadbourn
Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Legislation to raise deposit insurance
coverage and more than triple the Federal Deposit Insurance
Corp.’s borrowing authority cleared a House committee as the
agency seeks to stem a rise in bank failures.
The House Financial Services Committee today unanimously
approved a measure that would make permanent a $250,000 limit on
protecting deposits, up from $100,000, and let the FDIC borrow as
much as $100 billion from the Treasury Department to support the
insurance fund.
“It’s very important for small banks, particularly now with
people worried about banks failing,” said House Financial
Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank, a Massachusetts
Democrat who wrote the legislation. “It’s to prevent there from
being a move out of the small banks to the bigger banks.”
Congress is being asked to expand FDIC access to capital as
the agency protects the insurance fund, which had $34.6 billion
at the end of the third quarter, by charging higher premiums to
banks. Lawmakers are aiming to help the FDIC after the fund was
drained by 25 bank failures last year and six so far this year.
The bill raises insurance coverage to $250,000 per
depositor per bank and provides other safeguards for the banking
industry. A temporary increase was part of the $700 billion
financial-rescue plan approved by Congress in October.
The legislation raises the FDIC’s line of credit from the
Treasury Department to $100 billion from $30 billion, giving the
agency expanded authority to support consumers against bank
failures. The bill also gives additional borrowing capabilities
to credit Unions, increasing the amount they can draw from
Treasury to $6 billion from $1 billion.

Replenishing Fund

The House is proposing to give the FDIC more time to
replenish the fund and maintain a cushion against further
declines. The FDIC would have eight years, instead of five, to
return the reserve ratio, or fund balance divided by insured
deposits, to 1.15 percent.
The FDIC is required by law to replenish the fund when the
reserve ratio, or fund balance divided by insured deposits, falls
below 1.15 percent. It stood at 0.76 percent at the end of the
third quarter, the lowest level since 1994.
Fourth-quarter earnings reports and a deteriorating economy
led the agency to raise its cost estimate for failures in the
next four years. Bank seizures through 2013 will cost the
insurance fund more than the $40 billion forecast last year,
Chief Operating Officer John Bovenzi said yesterday in testimony
to the committee.
To backstop a new debt guarantee program, the FDIC is asking
Congress to give it authority to impose fees on bank holding
companies along with deposit-taking institutions already assessed
for their insurance. The new program guarantees at least $1.4
trillion in borrowing.
The FDIC is a Washington-based bank regulator that oversees
8,384 institutions with $14.6 trillion in assets.
Changes to the Hope for Homeowners program, which Congress
passed in July, were passed in a separate bill. Frank introduced
the measure to increase participation in the $300 billion program
under the Federal Housing Administration.

*T
For Related News and Information:
Stories on Congress and mortgages: TNI MOR CNG <GO>
Today’s top financial stories: FTOP <GO>
*T

--Editors: Steve Geimann, Gregory Mott

To contact the reporter on this story:
Margaret Chadbourn in Washington at +1-202-654-4316 or
[email protected].

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Alec D.B. McCabe at +1-212-617-4175 or [email protected].

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Wednesday, February 4, 2009 2:13:57 PM



more...
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Emerging Markets Recommended by Oscar Gruss After 18-Month Lull
2009-02-04 17:08:24.203 GMT


By Fabiola Moura and Heloiza Canassa
Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Oscar Gruss & Son Inc., a New York-
based institutional brokerage, is advising clients to take a
fresh look at Brazil and other commodity-driven emerging markets
after recommending investors stay away the past 18 months.
“After we spent about one year and a half just telling
people to really have virtually no exposure to emerging markets
across the board, we really stopped saying that,” said Oscar
Gruss Chief Executive Officer Michael Shaoul, who helps manage
the Marketfield Fund that beat 88 percent of its peers last year.
“We really take the view now that it is OK to start building
positions again in the emerging markets.”
Economies more dependent on commodities and industrial
exports such as Brazil will perform better in coming quarters,
Shaoul said. Brazil’s Bovespa index has climbed 9.6 percent this
year, compared with a 5 percent drop in the MSCI index for
developing-nation stocks.
“Non-financial economies have some possibility of doing
better at some point in the next couple of quarters,” Shaoul
said in a telephone interview yesterday from New York. “Brazil,
which we look at as one of the most economically sensitive
markets, has done better than the average emerging market since
it bottomed.”
The $34.8 million Marketfield Fund, which had 89 percent of
its assets invested in the U.S. as of December, lost 13 percent
in 2008. It is beating 70 percent of its peers this year with a 4
percent decline. The fund’s other biggest markets are Canada,
Mexico, the U.K. and Spain.

Brazil, Russia

Improved economic data in markets such as Brazil and Russia
indicated the peak of a cycle in the middle of 2008, Shaoul said.
Brazil’s economy grew more than 6 percent for four straight
quarters through September, while Russia’s economy expanded at
that pace for more than three years. Growth in both countries now
is slowing.
“Consumer sentiment had never been better in these markets
and that’s exactly when you need to get out,” said Shaoul.
Brazil’s consumer confidence index dropped in December to
the lowest since 2005, according to the Getulio Vargas
Foundation, after reaching a record high in March. Meanwhile,
industrial production in Brazil plunged the most in at least 17
years in December as companies slashed jobs and sent workers home
on paid leave to adjust inventories from cars to poultry products
to lower demand.

‘Cyclical Peak’

The pullback of big investors and international banks open
opportunities for smaller investment firms, Shaoul said.
“You’ve gone through the cyclical peak of attention,”
Shaoul said. “Now you are in the part of the cycle where
everybody starts retrenching from that.”
Foreign investors pulled money from Brazil’s stock exchange
for an eighth month in January, extending the longest streak
since at least 1995.
Foreign investors sold 646 million reais ($280 million) more
than they bought in stocks last month, exchange owner BM&FBovespa
SA said this week in a statement on its Web site. Investors last
year withdrew a record 24.6 billion reais as the benchmark
Bovespa index plunged 41 percent, the most ever.
This year’s gains in the Bovespa were led by commodity
producers Petroleo Brasileiro SA and Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, which
together make up about two-fifths of the gauge.
“The investors don’t want to know anymore and
international banks are looking to cut their expenses and cut
their exposures,” said Shaoul. “That tends to be, over time, a
much more interesting phase of the investment cycle.”

For Related News and Information:
Most-read stories on Brazil: TNI BRAZIL READ <GO>
Stories on Brazilian stocks: NI BZS <GO>
Stories on Latin American stocks: MXLA <Index> CN <GO>
Brazil foreign investment graph: BZFIBTOT <Index> GP <GO>
Emerging-market monitor: EMMV <GO>

--With reporting by Paulo Winterstein in Sao Paulo. Editors:
Laura Zelenko, Allen Wan.

To contact the reporter on this story:
Fabiola Moura in New York at +1-212-617-5772 or
[email protected]
Heloiza Canassa in Sao Paulo at +55-11-3017-4927 or
[email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
David Papadopoulos at +1-212-617-5105 or
[email protected]

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Wednesday, February 4, 2009 9:29:01 AM

If one of the big "surprises" of 2008 was the failure of emerging markets
to "de-couple" from the US led collapse might the resilience of the
industrial emerging market economies be a surprise for 2009? Until recent
days the consensus had been steadily ratcheted down regarding the likely
performance of EM economies, with China in particular attracting growing
concerns that its economy was falling off a cliff. We were therefore
impressed that the local equity market's recovery from its massive 2008
decline was able to continue in the face of these concerns. The January
Chinese PMI data (which has been fairly widely reported on today) is the
first significant data series to suggest that the local equity market's
resilience may be reflected in the wider economy. It is always very
dangerous to extrapolate from a single month's numbers, but the risk of
being wrong is mitigated by the fact that sentiment is very poor and the
market has already been purged of excess.

Some further support for this view has been supplied by the recent action
in the Baltic Freight Index (BDIY Index) which is sensitive to Chinese
demand for iron ore in particular. This index has registered a series of
strong gains in recent days. We would note that although in percentage
terms these gains have been impressive the index is recovering from a drop
of over 90% between May and November 2008. Nevertheless both the 13 week
(green) and 4 week (red) ROC charts show the historic magnitude of recent
gains. The gains in this index, if sustained, are a positive indication for
industrial metals and miners in general and iron ore in particular.




(See attached file: D-SHSZ300_Index.gif)

(See attached file: W-BDIY_Index.gif) - D-SHSZ300_Index.gif - W-BDIY_Index.gif

| | # 
# Tuesday, 03 February 2009
Tuesday, February 3, 2009 10:31:18 AM

In last week's release of H.4 data detailing the size and composition of the
FRB's balance sheet the FRB made an interesting decision to separate out the
swap lines with foreign Central Banks (CBSL). Previously this data had been
lumped in the catch all "Other Assets" category, but, as the attached chart
shows this is inappropriate for a facility that has grown to $465 bln. almost
all of which was added post-Lehman.

We suspected that the decision to award "line item" status signalled a
realization that the currency swaps were here to stay as a semi-permanent part
of the FRB arsenal. Today's statement shows that assumption to be correct. What
remains to be seen is whether a renewed bout of turbulence in currency markets
forces the FRB to massively increase its commitment to this program. We have
added the CBSL to our weekly watch list.

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

ECB Extends Currency Swap Lines With Fed Until End October
2009-02-03 15:08:33.867 GMT


By Simone Meier
Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank said it will
extend its currency swap lines with the U.S. Federal Reserve until
Oct. 30 “to address continued pressures in global U.S. dollar
funding markets.”

For Related News and Information:
Search for central bank stories: NSE MONETARY POLICY <GO>
Stories on ECB interest rates: STNI ECBACTION <GO>
Stories related to the ECB: NI ECB <GO>
Euro-region economic stories: TNI ECO EUROP <GO>

--Editor: Matthew Brockett

To contact the reporter on this story:
Simone Meier in Frankfurt at +49-69-9204-1329 or
[email protected].

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
John Fraher at +44-20-7673-2058 or [email protected]

- D-FARBCBLS_Index.gif

| | # 
Tuesday, February 3, 2009 9:49:20 AM

In recent weeks while the overall SPX has repeatedly tested key support at
800 most economically sensitive sectors (particularly the oil and
technology sectors) have proved far more resilient. Since early January the
Transportation sector has detached itself from this tendency of
economically sensitive sectors to outperform and yesterday violated its
November 2008 low. While the index has since recovered moderately it
remains uncomfortably close to support, with little to catch it below 2900
until you get to the March 2004 low around 2730. A further breakdown in
the Transportation index would also, in our opinion, increase the odds of
the SPX violating its own support at 800, setting up a retest of the
November low at 740. The Transportation index should therefore be watched quite
closely in the coming sessions.



(See attached file: D-TRAN_Index.gif) - D-TRAN_Index.gif

| | # 
# Monday, 02 February 2009
Monday, February 2, 2009 12:33:03 PM

--- Original Sender: CHARLES WHITMAN, OSCAR GRUSS & SON IN ---

(BN) ‘One of the Great Repair Jobs’ Revives U.S. Banks: Chart of
Day



more...
+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

‘One of the Great Repair Jobs’ Revives U.S. Banks: Chart of Day
2009-02-02 17:17:15.581 GMT


By David Wilson
Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. government efforts to revive the
banking system have produced “one of the great ‘repair jobs’ in
the history of modern finance,” according to Michael Aronstein,
Oscar Gruss & Son Inc.’s chief investment strategist.
The CHART OF THE DAY shows cash and government debt climbed
to 23 percent of commercial banks’ loans, leases and securities,
the biggest part of their assets, from 15 percent in April. The
latter figure was the lowest since at least 1972, according to
data compiled by the Federal Reserve.
The Fed’s expansion of its balance sheet accounted for the
bulk of the increase, Aronstein wrote in a report today. Through
debt purchases and loans, the central bank more than doubled its
balance-sheet assets since September.
“Their willingness to provide funding support across a wide
expanse of capital markets has reversed many of the pressures”
on the U.S. financial system that built up last year, he wrote.
Investments made under the Troubled Asset Relief Program
played a lesser role, the report said. The Treasury assisted more
than 200 banks through the program, according to a Bloomberg
stock index of participating companies.

For Related News and Information:
Global financial crisis: EXTRA <GO>
Top Federal Reserve stories: TNI FED WWTOP <GO>
Top U.S. Treasury stories: TNI TRE WWTOP <GO>
Top financial stories: TOP FIN <GO>

--Editors: James Greiff, Laurence Arnold

To contact the reporter on this story:
David Wilson in New York at +1-212-617-2248 or
[email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
James Greiff at +1-212-617-5801 or [email protected]

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