Both the Chicago and Milwaukee regional PMI surveys came in stronger than
expected today but perhaps what is more interesting is that both indicate a
continuation of the same trend of rising new orders, rising production and
declining inventories. This suggests that a further acceleration of productive
activity will be required.
.
The attached chart shows the Chicago PMI data for New orders (red, top),
Production (black, middle) and Inventories (blue, bottom). While the New Orders
made a new recovery high of 62.8 (indicating an acceleration of demand from
October) the Inventory number rose only moderately to 34.9 (32.2), still
indicating a rapid pace of monthly drawdown. Perhaps the only discouraging data
was employment which remained negative at 41.9 (38.3 in October) but this tends
to be very correlated with inventory data.
.
The (less important) Milwaukee data series improved strongly to 57 (from 50)
with New Orders coming in at 63 (53) and Production at 64 (56). Inventory data
actually fell to 39 (44). Interestingly both "White Collar" and "Blue Collar"
employment data moved into positive territory at 56 (47) and 54 (38)
respectively. The market now awaits the key national ISM survey which is due to
be released tomorrow morning. - chicagopminov09.gif

China Plays Backseat Driver on Dollar Policy: Caroline Baum Nov. ...

A good, sensible commentary on the USD and China.
<>

The highly distortive effect of the FRB's "Credit Easing" policy continues
to be illuminated in the weekly H.8 report on commercial bank assets and
liabilities. We have commented on the massive buildup of cash before
(currently $1,220 Bln) and no doubt this buildup is connected to the recent
collapse in Interbank Loans that we highlight this week.
.
As the attached chart shows, Interbank Loans have fallen by almost exactly
50% from their high of $421.9 Bln on June 10th 2009 to their current level
of $210.7 Bln. Interbank lending now measures its smallest ever percentage
of commercial bank activity at 2.31% of total credit. Unlike the sharp drop
in Interbank lending that took place exactly a year ago this contraction is
not being driven by an unwillingness of the largest at banks to trust each
other to repay short term loans but (we would presume) by a much diminished
need for such facilities since there is so much more cash available within
the banks to bridge any short term funding requirement.


(See attached file: M-ALCBINTR_Index.gif) - M-ALCBINTR_Index.gif

As ever we view setbacks in global markets as a useful source of data on
the underlying strength of global asset markets. Having spent a couple of
hours parsing through the reaction to the problems in Dubai we highlight
gold and South Korea's KOSPI Index as two of the more interesting reactions.
.
With regards to gold this mornings steep sell off underlines the point that
gold is currently highly correlated with risk assets and not the "safe
haven" that many currently claim it to be. If the current weakness in
emerging market equities continues (we are open minded on that prospect) we
would expect to see gold give up a good portion of its recent gains. There
is nothing surprising about this. The only times that gold has proved to be
an effective hedge against falling markets has been periods where the prior
speculative flows into the metal have been negligible (1998 and 2007 were
both good examples of this). Other broad corrections that were preceded by
significant precious metal inflows saw gold and its brethren fall sharply
(the corrections of 2004, 2006 & 2008 all showed this to be the case ). What
needs to be understood by anyone currently allocating to gold is that it is not
a currently a diversification from risk but instead just another (and crowded)
way to introduce it into a portfolio. This does not mean it can't appreciate
further (although it looks like $1,200 will be a hard barrier to cross) but it
will only do so if speculative flows continue to be drawn towards it.
.
With regards to the KOSPI index is notable that since topping out in late
September this has substantially underperformed all other major emerging
market indexes. Last night's sell off was exacerbated by the exposure of a
number of large Korean engineering companies to Dubai but it should be
recognized that this market has been performing poorly for several weeks.
Although not one of the beloved BRICs, Korea remains one of the most
influential emerging markets for institutional allocation and a further
breakdown of this market would not bode well for the overall asset class.
.
As for the direct influence of Dubai itself at this point it seems unlikely
to have a prolonged direct impact on most developed markets, which are going to
be far more sensitive to local economic and corporate news in the coming
sessions. In terms of the US all eyes are now on the initial retail reports
from the start of the holiday season with Monday's session and the
immediate direction of the market likely to be largely determined by them.


(See attached file: D-KOSPI_Index.gif)
(See attached file: D-GOLDS_Comdty.gif) - D-KOSPI_Index.gif - D-GOLDS_Comdty.gif

October's New Home Sales data was a little stronger than expected with
sales coming in at 430K vs. last month's revised sales of 405K. While still
a feeble level of sales this is highest level of activity since September
2008 and represents the first positive YoY change in sales since late 2005.
Even so the improvement in the New Home market badly lags that of Existing
Homes and the relative size of the former to the latter fell to a new all
time low of 8.07% in October (see second chart). This does suggest that any
subsequent mean reversion will see a much more rapid percentage increase in
New Sales which remain at levels seen in the late 1960's.
.
Meanwhile the inventory picture continues to tighten with the overall level
falling to 239K, the lowest reading since May 1971. The inventory to sales
ratio at 6.7 months is much less extreme but it should be recognized that
any increase in activity will pull this ratio down sharply. In terms of
anticipating an actual "shortage" of New Homes the most relevant metric is
probably the inventory of completed homes (see third chart). This has
fallen to 104K homes, the lowest reading since December 2004 while the
percentage of inventory made up by completed homes has also turned sharply
in recent months. A rebound in sales activity remains the key for this
sector but it should be recognized that the depletion of inventories and
very low level of housing starts makes the industry far more sensitive to a
rebound in sales than has historically been the case at the start of a recovery.


(See attached file: D-NHSLNFS.gif)
(See attached file: W-NHSLTOT_Index.gif)
(See attached file: D-NHSS4SC_Index.gif) - D-NHSLNFS.gif - W-NHSLTOT_Index.gif
- D-NHSS4SC_Index.gif

Today's Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims certainly support our belief
that the US employment cycle is turning more rapidly than consensus
estimates. Clearly one needs to take any single weekly data point with a
pinch of salt, particularly one which includes a holiday period, but this
week's strong data is part of an increasingly striking trend which has been
in place since the summer months. Initial claims fell very sharply to 466K,
the lowest reading since September 2008 and a drop of over 30% from the
peak readings registered in March 2008. As the attached chart shows the
pace of decline of initial claims is as rapid as anything seen in the 1975
and 1983 employment recoveries and this data suggests that corporations are
starting to exhaust their ability and inclination to slash employment at
current production levels.
.
This effect of this process of exhaustion can be seen in continuing claims
which continues to fall considerably quicker than consensus estimates. This
drop cannot simply be explained by the "drop off" of claimants from
unemployment benefits onto other welfare benefit programs but is also a
reflection of some job creation combined with a belated correction to the
seasonally adjusted data that we had predicted would occur. As the attached
seasonal chart demonstrates the disparity between these two data series has
narrowed considerably since mid-September although there is probably still
about 100K to 200K to go before the two series are aligned correctly. In any
case the current reading of 5423K is far below consensus estimates made a
few months ago and we would expect this data series to continue to fall
faster than estimated in the weeks ahead.
.
The question remains as to when this data will start to be reflected in the
senior "non-farm payroll" data series. Given the fact that labor was cut
back so violently this cycle we would expect any increase in production to
require a pace of job creation that is able overcome a higher than normal
level of initial claims. While back in late 2003 it required initial claims
to fall and stay below 375K to really impact non-farm payroll data the
crossover point should be considerably higher this time around.


(See attached file: M-INJCSP_Index.gif) - M-INJCSP_Index.gif -
contclaimssa-nsanov09.gif

It is worth noting that the VXO index has managed to force its way below
key support at 20 for only the second time this year. The former occasion
(almost exactly one month ago) presaged a nasty decline through the end of
October but it does not necessarily follow that this will happen this time
as well. It may, however, make it a little harder for the market to force
its way to new recovery highs in the immediate future. As a general rule of
thumb 20 has typically been seen as the beginning of "complacent" readings
in the VXO, but sub-20 readings have been able to remain in place for weeks
or even months without leading to a serious correction. Regarding the
current reading it should be noted that today is the first day of the
December expiration cycle and that contract rolling may have influenced the
price of implied volatility, it is also the start of the short and
typically quiet Thanksgiving week, another factor that may be damping down
the level of volatility.


(See attached file: D-SPX_INDEX.gif) - D-SPX_INDEX.gif

The October Existing Home Sales data was a very robust report that further
underlines the fact that once clearing prices for foreclosed units were
established in major metropolitan markets this summer the ready
availability of GSE financing and extremely low interest rates have allowed
demand to recover extremely quickly. The attached charts show single family
house sales and inventory. Sales rose 9.7% to 5,330K, the highest reading
since February 2007 (when the first sub-prime lenders collapsed) and a pace
of activity roughly equivalent to that in place in mid 2003. The 12 month
RoC has reached 21.4%, underlining the pace of recovery.
.
The Inventory of new homes also continues to decline and is now just over
3mm homes. This level marks a rough boundary between a market suffering
from extreme oversupply and one that is more acceptably balanced between
supply and demand. Clearly the stated inventory level still fails to
include homes in the process of being foreclosed, or those which have been
foreclosed but not yet placed on the housing market but this has been true
for several quarters and we would still herald the improvement without
regarding it as a particularly accurate measure of the total number of
homes theoretically available to be sold.
.
In terms of the ramifications of this data it probably has more immediate
relevance for regional banks than home-builders. The former are likely to
see the total time needed to work out of the current distressed cycle, as
well as the ultimate losses incurred, reduced by robust sales activity. The
latter are reliant on a new home market that thus far remains detached from
the recovery in existing home sales. Longer term we doubt this will remain
the case and today's data underlines how quickly markets recover once a
firm bottom is put into place.


(See attached file: M-EHSLSL_Index.gif)
(See attached file: M-EHSLHAFS_Index.gif) - M-EHSLSL_Index.gif -
M-EHSLHAFS_Index.gif

As gold continues to attract the headlines as well as fresh swathes of
speculative capital it may be worth considering its performance against
platinum, its less widely held rival. As the attached chart shows the latter
became far more extended during the commodity rally of early 2008 and as a
result suffered far greater damage during the wave of divestment that took
place thereafter, falling over 65% from its $2,250 high in March to its
$771 low in October. Since that time platinum has almost doubled to
$1471.50 but its price differential to gold remains far closer than it has
for most of the last 10 years.
.
As the attached chart shows an ounce of gold is currently almost 80% of the
cost of an ounce of platinum, compared to a 10 year average nearer to 50%.
While some of this outperformance by gold can be attributed to lower
industrial demand for platinum (which has significant usage in the
automobile industry) it is reasonable to assume that the concentration of
attention on gold's "monetary characteristics" together with relative
abundance of gold ETFs available relative to platinum ETFs has perhaps
overplayed its relative attraction compared to other precious metals.



(See attached file: W-GOLDS_Comdty.gif) - W-GOLDS_Comdty.gif

Since yesterday's Philly Fed data came out while we were travelling we were
unable to comment in real time, but yesterday's data was interesting enough to
be worth considering 24 hours later.
.
At 16.70 the overall index (black) was somewhat ahead of expectation and while
this is to be welcomed we are more interested in the information offered by the
sub-categories that further confirm our theories regarding the current cycle.
New orders (red line) grew very strongly reaching 14.80, the best reading since
June 2006. Shipments (not shown) were also strong at 15.70 but we note that
Delivery Time (not shown) deteriorated to -12.70, indicating growing bottle
necks in supply chains. This was further conformed by Inventory data (blue)
which stayed strongly negative at -17.30 although this represented a sharp
deceleration in drawdown from October's -31.80, indicating a greater rate of
production. As would be expected higher production resulted in improved
employment conditions with the Number of Employees (green line) virtually
neutral at -0.50 (a big improvement from October's -6.80) and Total Hours
worked (not shown) moving into positive territory at 2.00.
.
Taken overall we see a very similar picture to the November ISM data. Rising
sales, rising production but continued inventory drawdown requiring a further
acceleration in activity. With the Employment data already neutral this data
again suggests we are much closer to a turning point in the employment cycle
than current consensus estimates. - phillyfed.gif

Following yesterday's static NAHB Sentiment data we were expecting poor permit
and housing start data to be released this morning at at least at the headline
level this was the case, with both overall permits and sales coming in
substantially below consensus estimates. At the level of Single Family homes
however the data was somewhat more acceptable since the level of permits
remained virtually unchanged at 451K (452K last month). This is hardly exciting
but it is also unsurprising. It has been our view for several months that
homebuilders will only increase activity after the pace of sales has clearly
increased and inventory has been depleted to a razor thin level. On the other
hand such an improvement would almost certainly be rapid once it has commenced
given the remarkably low pace of sales and construction that we have seen over
the last 24 months. On balance the homebuilding sector still strikes us as an
attractive play on a recovery although one that clearly requires a patient
outlook. - permitsoct09.gif

Yesterday's release of NAHB Confidence data showed no change in sentiment with
the index staying in the ultra-low range that has trapped it since September
2007. This survey has been an accurate guide to New Home Sales and New Home
Starts data in recent months and as a result we would not be expecting any
significant upside surprise in the data that will be released this month
(Permits and starts this morning 8.30 am, New Home Sales 11/25). - nahboct09.gif

There are finally signs that US M&A activity may be breaking out of their
multi-month slumber. Attached is a chart showing the 10 week moving average of
reported transactions (Bloomberg users see MAATUS index DES for details)
involving US corporations. As most readers have been aware it has been a
particularly violent M&A cycle with the 10 week ma of reported transactions
peaking at $64.8 bln in July 2007 and bottoming 90% lower at $6.45 bln. in
August 2009. Recent weeks have seen a far more robust pace of transactions and
the 10 week ma has recovered to $18.11 bln. Interestingly this puts it just
below the level reached in October 2003 when the last cycle could be said to
have got underway.
.
A sustained rebound M&A would be a significant boost to equity valuations but
perhaps of greater significance would be the statement that it would represent
about growing corporate confidence and the willingness of both the bond market
and commercial banks to fund such ambitions. Clearly this is a trend worth
following in the weeks ahead. - usmanov1309.gif

Today's release of September Commerce Dept data related to US Manufacturing
Inventories showed a sharp deceleration in the rate of inventory drawdown
compared to recent data. At -0.4% the monthly drawdown was the lowest since
September 2008 but extends the sequence of consecutive negative months to 13
(prior to this cycle we had never seen more than 6 consecutive months of
drawdowns). The annual RoC (blue line) remains at -13.43% (a record) but the
shorter 3 month RoC (red line) improved moderately to -3.16%. We thus have a
hint of another "2nd derivative resconce" - or in more useful laymans terms a
deceleration of a negative trend. We have seen many such examples of this since
the start of the recovery 6 months ago and thus far they have typically
developed into rapid recoveries. We continue to believe that inventory data
will undergo a similar process in the coming months and that as a result
productive activity will accelerate accordingly. - maninvsep09.gif

Worth noting the implications of this hurried piece of legislation. As ever as
market commentators our concern is not what legislation should be (or in this
case should not) but what its implications are - and in this case they appear
to be a significant positive for the homebuilders.

As we claimed at the time concerns about China's unwieldy stimulus having
already caused an equity market "bubble" and collapse during the summer were
very premature. Having suffered a sizeable correction the SHASHR stabilized at
obvious technical support at the start of September and it is notable that the
chinese equity market significantly outperformed other emerging markets during
October's decline. Having now broken out we would expect this index to move up
to test its 2009 high at 3651. Above that level obvious resistance lies at the
50% (3772) and 61.8% (4250) retracements of the 2007/8 collapse. The latter may
seem to be an extreme target (it is 250% of the 2008 low) but given the amount
of monetary excess sloshing around in the chinese economy we would be very open
minded about how asset markets perform. - sg200911161012.gif

Suntory Buys Orangina From Blackstone, Lion Capital (Update3) Nov. ...

Another of the ill-fated 2007 deals off the books of the LBO firms. Whatever
the valuation (not known at the time of writing) it is a plus to see a large
transaction like this placed back in the hands of a strategic operator. Thus
far the unwind of the boom transaction is going somewhat smoother than may have
been anticipated - which in turn should allow the LBO firms to increase the
volume of new deals going forward.
<>

The Japanese Industrial Production and Inventory data for September 2009 shows
a similar pattern to that of the US. Production (black line) continues to climb
from the depths of February when it hit 69.5 (2005=100) and rose a further
2.15% to (a still depressed) 85.7. Interestingly Shipments put in a more
powerful showing and have recovered to 92.6, which even allowing for their more
volatile nature puts them some distance ahead of production. As a result
Inventory drawdown continues to gather pace, dropping a rapid 3.56% to 92.1, a
drop of over 12% for the last 12 months. Clearly this rate of inventory
drawdown suggests that even with sales and shipments staying at their current
tepid level industrial production will need to be increased substantially. -
japanprodinvsep09.gif

Some interesting changes to the MXEF Index (one of our standard "Speculator"
charts). They reflect the clear outperformance of both the Chinese and
Brazilian economies in this recovery (which are partly a reflection of thier
own trade relationships). What is perhaps more interesting is that most of the
additions are companies that are sensitive to local economic conditions rather
than the export-sensitive companies that have long dominated this index. This
again perhaps reflects the strong consensus belief that EM has once more
decoupled from the rest of the global economy, a belief which we do not share.

The heavy release of most key Chinese monthly statistics came out last night
and made for its usual remarkable reading. Retail sales grew 16.2%, Industrial
production 16.1% while Fixed Asset investment continued to be extremely
lopsided at 33.1% (all YoY figures). Even so there is yet to be any sign of
inflation - at least as it is measured in the official CPI level which was
reported at -0.5%. The External economy remains a laggard with exports still
down 13.7% YoY.
.
On the monetary side M2 growth continues to be extremely rapid at 29.4%
(continuing to widen gap between Chinese and US M2) but there was a significant
deceleration in new bank loans which fell to 253 Bln, the lowest since February
2008. The 6 month ma of bank loans (see attached) now clearly indicates that
the peak of new credit creation has passed but given the vast amount of new
commitments granted over the last 12 months this is unlikely to have any effect
in the near term. Given the fact that exports remain subdued and CPI is yet to
signal an inflationary problem our assumption would be that the "moderately
loose" monetary policy will remain in place at the current time. -
chinanewloansoct09.gif

This is very interesting and is the first time the issue of seasonal adjustment
has been raised in the mainstream media. In fact the gap between seasonal and
NSA unemplyment rate reached 0.7%, a level on seen once before back in June
1975 so the NY Times was on stronger grounds than it understood. Attached is a
chart of the SA Non-Farm Payroll less NSA data that demonstrates this.

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Did Unemployment Really Rise?
2009-11-09 19:53:50.703 GMT


By Floyd Norris
Nov. 9 (New York Times) -- The economic reactions over the
weekend to Friday's employment report all started from the
assumption that things grew much worse in October. The
unemployment rate leaped to 10.2 percent from 9.8 percent.
Another 190,000 jobs vanished.
Actually, none of that happened.
In reality, the government report says unemployment rates
remained steady at 9.5 percent. And the number of jobs actually
rose, by 80,000. And the number of jobs for college-educated
Americans rose more than in any month in the last six years.
If those were the numbers in the articles, we would hear
about the economy stabilizing, and talk about the Obama stimulus
plan starting to have the intended effect.
So why is this the first time you've seen those
better-looking numbers? It is because the government adjusted
them before they were released.
The adjustments are for seasonality. For some reason,
October is the month with the largest seasonal adjustment down in
jobs. So the increase in the unemployment rate does not reflect
people actually losing jobs. It reflects the belief that seasonal
factors should have added more jobs than they did.
All this may be very reasonable, and there is no way I can
think of to test whether the seasonal adjustments are reliable.
But I suspect seasonal factors are less important this year, when
the economy may be changing directions, than they normally are.
Studying the unadjusted numbers provides some indication
that the hiring is starting to improve for better jobs. The
number of jobs for college graduates, according to the household
survey, rose 755,000 in October, before seasonal adjustments.
That is the third-largest increase since the government started
counting those figures, in 1992. (It trails increases of 895,000
in February 2002 and 755,000 in October 2003.)
On the other hand, the number of jobs fell for those with
less education. If this report does indicate that the job
recession is ending, it is an end that is providing immediate
benefits for the educated, not for many of the people who most
need help.

Copyright 2009 The New York Times Company

-0- Nov/09/2009 19:53 GMT
- nfpseasonaladjust.gif

Today's release of September Wholesale inventory data unsurprisingly showed the
same pattern of drawdown present in other data series. The overall index fell
0.9% (slightly less than expected) which is a moderation from the very abrupt
-1.3% seen in August. Even so this reduced the 12 month RoC down to -15.05%, a
new record pace of annual drawdown. Based on other data that has been released
in recent weeks and statements of intent by a number of corporations it is
really the Q4 data that should start to show signs of inventory rebuild but
what the September data reiterates is quite how much production will need to
increase in order to simply stabilize inventory. Underneath the headlines there
was some interesting divergences in sub-categories. Perhaps the most
significant was computer inventory (see attached chart) which grew 2.30%, its
first positive month since October 2008. This confirms other data that suggests
that technology in general and PCs in particular have rebounded a little
earlier than other industries. - uswholesaleinventorysep09.gif -
computerinventoryoct09.gif

Further insight concerning the progress of the inventory and employment
cycle was provided by today's output and productivity data. Attached is a
chart which shows total Durable Manufacturing Output (black line, RHS)
together with Total Hours Worked. While Output has finally registered a
small turn of 2.99% to 148 (still 20% below the Q4 2007 peak of 184.7) this
clearly is insufficient to respond to a greater increase in durable orders.
Even more striking is the fact that labor hours continue to fall off
rapidly with total Durable Manufacturing hours falling 1.81% to 70.4. This
resulted in a very large increase in quarterly productivity (blue line,
bottom chart) of 21.2% which appears to be the largest quarterly increase
on record since this data series started in 1937 (the prior peak reading
was 17.4% in Q4 1947). This is clearly not a sustainable rate of
productivity growth and indicates a mismatch between labor and production
that will need to be rectified either by a subsequent slump in demand or
increase in hours worked.
.
Our bias is strongly towards the second outcome and from our perspective a
reading of this magnitude suggests that total hours worked in this sector
are going to start to increase significantly in the near future, with a
combination of plant re-opening and re-hiring being required in order to
meet even current depressed levels of demand for durable goods.


(See attached file: D-PRODDURO_Index.gif) - D-PRODDURO_Index.gif

As we would have anticipated the FRB has not modified its opinion in the face
of the clear improvement in corporate earnings and most economic statistics.
The FRB is a slow moving body that requires agreement across multiple levels of
seniority in order to change its perspective. Asset markets therefore appear to
have a sustained positive influence in the form of low rates and further MBS
purchases for the foreseeable future. We continue to believe that the FRB is
significantly underestimating the pace of repair in the US economy and is
largely silent on the implications of ballooning excess reserves. Later in this
cycle (our guess being mid-2010) we suspect that the FRB will be forced to
change path, possibly aggressively, but once more the recent talk about "exit
strategies" has proved to be premature.

October's ISM Manufacturing survey is a very positive report that demonstrates
the sort of sequential improvement in both the headline and underlying data
that is typical for the early stage of a recovery.
.
The Overall Index (black line) rose to 55.7 (52.6 in September), well ahead of
consensus and the strongest reading since April 2006. New Orders (red) stayed
strongly positive at 58.50 while production (blue) accelerated to 63.30. Even
so Inventory data (dark green) continued to show a degree of drawdown at 46.90
suggesting that a further boos to production will be required in the months
ahead. Perhaps most interestingly, however, is the employment index which moved
into positive territory at 53.10. We had noted that a number of regional PMI
reports had already hinted at this but to have it confirmed by the national
number is very encouraging. - napmoct09.gif

Our weekly monitoring of the cash and treasury holdings of US commercial
banks is starting to uncover precisely the sort of rapid acceleration that
we had expected. The latest FRB H.8 report shows that cash holdings soared
by just over $160 bln last week to reach a record $1,344 bln while Treasury
holdings held steady at $1,392 bln. This takes the combined percentage up
over the 30% level for the first time since February 1994 (which
incidentally was precisely the point at which the FRB started raising rates
forcing commercial banks out of their crowded carry trades).

While we note a number of recent media stories on commercial bank cash
holdings and Secretary Geithner's comments about the need for commercial
banks to lend, the speed of cash build up suggests that we are not simply
dealing with bank's unwillingness to lend. In fact the only major
contraction in lending is taking place in the Commercial and Industrial
sector, and is a reflection of booming corporate debt and CP issuance as
much as banks' risk aversion. Instead we believe that the FRB's continued
purchase of risk assets (primarily MBS) is having a much greater than
anticipated impact on commercial bank's balance sheets. At the current rate
of accumulation we would anticipate a record degree of liquid assets being
accumulated by the start of 2010 and the subsequent control of this
unwieldily pool of capital looks likely to be the frontline of FRB policy
in the months ahead.


(See attached file: M-.BANKCASH_Index.gif) - M-.BANKCASH_Index.gif